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Ratings for the physical buildout of AI

Jurisdiction Index / US — Virginia (PJM/Dominion)

US — Virginia (PJM/Dominion)

Tier 2 · Competitive
Stable
Rank #13 of 30
Data confidence A
61.6 /100

JCI composite · as of · methodology v0

US — Virginia (PJM/Dominion) scores 61.6/100 on the Compute Institute Jurisdiction Competitiveness Index (Tier 2, Competitive), ranking #13 of 30 rated jurisdictions with a stable outlook, as of June 15, 2026 under methodology v0. Its strongest dimension is Stability & Execution Risk at 8.3/10; its weakest is Power Availability & Deliverability at 3.9/10. 22 of 22 sub-factors are scored on E1–E2 evidence (data confidence A).

Dimension breakdown

Seven dimensions, each 0–10, weighted per methodology v0. JCI = Σ(dimension × weight) × 10.

Power Availability & Deliverability

3.9 /10 weight 20%

Power Cost

5 /10 weight 12.5%

Speed to Build

6.8 /10 weight 17.5%

Regulatory & AI Policy Environment

5.8 /10 weight 12.5%

Fiscal & Incentives

6.6 /10 weight 10%

Capital & Ecosystem Depth

7.7 /10 weight 12.5%

Stability & Execution Risk

8.3 /10 weight 15%

Sub-factor scores and sources

Every base-scored input below carries E1–E2 evidence: a justification, an evidence-level grade, and a link to the underlying source document.

Power Availability & Deliverability — 3.9/10 (weight 20%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
Grid headroom 40% of dimension 3.5 /10 PJM/Dominion transmission constraints in Data Center Alley persist through 2026; market monitor and consumer complaints over adequacy; large-load growth outpacing firm capacity. as of
E2
Dominion Energy transmission disclosures (reported, Data Center Frontier) www.datacenterfrontier.com
Time-to-power 35% of dimension 3 /10 Queue positions exceed 36 months and key transmission upgrades that unlock contracted capacity stretch to 2030; multi-year waits typical for new >100 MW loads in NoVA. as of
E2
Dominion facility interconnection requirements / PJM planning www.dominionenergy.com
Energy mix & expandability 15% of dimension 4.5 /10 Offshore wind (CVOW) and SMR exploration in IRP, but PJM generation queue backlog slows new firm capacity; VCEA constrains new gas additions. as of
E1
PJM interconnection planning / Dominion IRP www.pjm.com
Water availability 10% of dimension 7.5 /10 Low-to-medium baseline water stress in northern Virginia per WRI Aqueduct; municipal reclaimed-water programs serve Loudoun DCs. as of
E1
WRI Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas www.wri.org

Power Cost — 5/10 (weight 12.5%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
Industrial electricity price 60% of dimension 5.5 /10 EIA Virginia industrial average ~8 c/kWh (~$80/MWh) and rising with fuel and transmission riders. as of
E1
EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A www.eia.gov
Price trajectory & exposure 25% of dimension 2.5 /10 PJM capacity auctions cleared at or near price cap for 2026/27 with data-center demand cited as driver; full pass-through to load means steep multi-year cost escalation. as of
E1
PJM capacity auction results (reported, Utility Dive) www.utilitydive.com
Cost certainty / contractability 15% of dimension 7 /10 Regulated utility tariffs plus access to PJM wholesale and corporate PPAs in USD; long tenors available but capacity-cost rider exposure remains. as of
E1
Dominion SCC tariff filings www.scc.virginia.gov

Speed to Build — 6.8/10 (weight 17.5%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
Permitting regime 40% of dimension 5.5 /10 Historically fast by-right zoning is eroding: 2025-26 laws add siting assessments and Dominion load-forecast review; county-level opposition (PW County, Loudoun) lengthens approvals. as of
E2
Virginia 2026 session law on load-forecast review (reported, Virginia Mercury) virginiamercury.com
Observed construction velocity 35% of dimension 7 /10 Deepest delivery track record in the world: routine 18-24 month shells in Loudoun/PW when power is available; internal project DB not yet populated. as of
E2
JLARC 2024 Data Centers in Virginia report jlarc.virginia.gov
Labor & supply capacity 25% of dimension 8.5 /10 Largest concentration of experienced DC construction labor and specialized EPC firms globally (NoVA cluster). as of
E2
JLARC 2024 Data Centers in Virginia report jlarc.virginia.gov

Regulatory & AI Policy Environment — 5.8/10 (weight 12.5%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
AI-specific law in force 35% of dimension 5.5 /10 No comprehensive Virginia AI statute in force (2025 High-Risk AI bill HB 2094 vetoed); permissive-but-uncertain vacuum per D4 scoring note. as of
E1
Virginia LIS — HB 2094 (2025) veto record lis.virginia.gov
DC-specific regulation 35% of dimension 5 /10 New state-level siting-impact and utility load-review requirements in force; multiple county ordinances tightening; no moratorium. as of
E2
Virginia 2026 session law on load-forecast review (reported, Virginia Mercury) virginiamercury.com
Regulatory predictability 30% of dimension 7 /10 US WGI Regulatory Quality/Rule of Law high; active multi-front state legislative churn on data centers slightly degrades predictability vs other US states. as of
E1
World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators www.worldbank.org

Fiscal & Incentives — 6.6/10 (weight 10%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
Enacted incentives 40% of dimension 8 /10 Retail sales & use tax exemption for data center equipment in force through 2035 (extendable to 2040 for large investments), Va. Code §58.1-609.3(18). as of
E1
Code of Virginia §58.1-609.3 law.lis.virginia.gov
Headline tax burden 40% of dimension 6 /10 Virginia 6% CIT plus 21% federal; BPOL/local taxes add burden for capital-intensive operators. as of
E1
Virginia Department of Taxation — corporate income tax www.tax.virginia.gov
Incentive durability 20% of dimension 5 /10 JLARC review and repeated bills to condition or trim the exemption signal real contestation risk, though 2025-26 attempts failed. as of
E1
JLARC 2024 Data Centers in Virginia report jlarc.virginia.gov

Capital & Ecosystem Depth — 7.7/10 (weight 12.5%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
Committed capital 40% of dimension 9.5 /10 Largest concentration of closed hyperscaler data-center capex on earth (AWS, Microsoft, Google, Meta E1 filings and recorded deeds in Loudoun/PW). as of
E1
JLARC 2024 Data Centers in Virginia report jlarc.virginia.gov
Ecosystem 30% of dimension 10 /10 World's largest DC market (multi-GW operating stock in NoVA), unrivaled fiber density (MAE-East legacy interconnection), full hyperscaler presence, unrestricted GPU access. as of
E1
JLARC 2024 Data Centers in Virginia report jlarc.virginia.gov
Sovereign/anchor capital availability 30% of dimension 3 /10 No sovereign or state co-investment vehicle targeting AI infrastructure. as of
E1
IFSWF member directory (no US state AI-infra SWF) www.ifswf.org

Stability & Execution Risk — 8.3/10 (weight 15%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
Political/policy continuity 40% of dimension 7 /10 Stable institutions; data-center politics intensifying across both parties but core incentive/permission framework has survived successive sessions. as of
E1
World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators www.worldbank.org
Currency, transfer & convertibility 35% of dimension 9.5 /10 USD, no capital controls, AA+ sovereign. as of
E1
IMF AREAER — United States www.elibrary-areaer.imf.org
Physical & geopolitical risk 25% of dimension 8.5 /10 Low natural-catastrophe and zero sanctions exposure; inland NoVA siting away from coastal storm surge. as of
E1
FEMA National Risk Index hazards.fema.gov

Signals

Recent ingested source documents linked to this jurisdiction via extracted claims or triage mentions, newest first.

  1. E4
    Tangier Island: rising waters, eroding shores, dwindling time

    · Virginia Mercury · relevance 0.00

  2. E4
    In Albemarle County, Park’s Edge residents endure stinking floods, rat infestations, fire hazards

    · Virginia Mercury · relevance 0.00

  3. E4
    Rocovich sues Gov. Spanberger after his ouster as Virginia Tech rector and more headlines

    · Virginia Mercury · relevance 0.00

  4. E4
    New House budget strips environmental standards for data centers, creates commission instead

    · Virginia Mercury · relevance 0.70

  5. E4
    No way out: How Virginia law fails vulnerable renters

    · Virginia Mercury · relevance 0.00

  6. E4
    Va. superintendent reaffirms to Congress Loudoun’s commitment to student needs, parental cooperation

    · Virginia Mercury · relevance 0.00

  7. E4
    Some large Virginia customers face hurdles to using generators for demand response participation

    · Utility Dive · relevance 0.50

  8. E4
    Elevate, ArcLight Bring Energy Storage Facility Online in Virginia

    · POWER Magazine · relevance 0.60

  9. E4
    Our new community investments in Virginia support local jobs and expand energy affordability.

    · Google — The Keyword · relevance 0.20

  10. E4
    The exemption Virginia can’t price and won’t stop

    · Virginia Mercury · relevance 0.20

Scores are reproducible from the frozen inputs snapshot recorded at computation time (2026-06-15T23:52:45+00:00). See the full methodology for rubrics, weights, and the evidence ladder.