Jurisdiction Index / US — Texas (ERCOT)
US — Texas (ERCOT)
JCI composite · as of · methodology v0
US — Texas (ERCOT) scores 72.3/100 on the Compute Institute Jurisdiction Competitiveness Index (Tier 2, Competitive), ranking #2 of 30 rated jurisdictions with a stable outlook, as of June 15, 2026 under methodology v0. Its strongest dimension is Stability & Execution Risk at 8/10; its weakest is Power Availability & Deliverability at 6.4/10. 22 of 22 sub-factors are scored on E1–E2 evidence (data confidence A).
Dimension breakdown
Seven dimensions, each 0–10, weighted per methodology v0. JCI = Σ(dimension × weight) × 10.
Power Availability & Deliverability
Power Cost
Speed to Build
Regulatory & AI Policy Environment
Fiscal & Incentives
Capital & Ecosystem Depth
Stability & Execution Risk
Sub-factor scores and sources
Every base-scored input below carries E1–E2 evidence: a justification, an evidence-level grade, and a link to the underlying source document.
Power Availability & Deliverability — 6.4/10 (weight 20%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grid headroom 40% of dimension | 5.5 /10 | ERCOT tracks ~410 GW of large-load requests (~87% data centers) against ~85 GW system peak; only ~2.2 GW approved to energize in trailing 12 months, but generation additions are the fastest in the US. as of | ERCOT Large Load Update to Texas Senate (Apr 2026) www.ercot.com | |
| Time-to-power 35% of dimension | 7 /10 | ERCOT remains the fastest large-load interconnect culture in the US (~2-3 yr typical offers, CLR/BYOG early-energization paths in rules), though SB6 batch process adds gating; anchored so today's best performer scores ~8. as of | ERCOT Large Load Integration process www.ercot.com | |
| Energy mix & expandability 15% of dimension | 8.5 /10 | ~454 GW of generation interconnection requests (storage, solar, gas) and behind-the-meter/co-located generation is legal with disclosure under SB6. as of | ERCOT interconnection queue / EIA-860M preliminary generator data www.eia.gov | |
| Water availability 10% of dimension | 4.5 /10 | WRI Aqueduct rates much of central/west Texas high baseline water stress; large-user groundwater regime is permissive but contested in drought districts. as of | WRI Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas www.wri.org |
Power Cost — 7.1/10 (weight 12.5%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial electricity price 60% of dimension | 7 /10 | EIA industrial average for Texas ~6-7 c/kWh (~$60-70/MWh), with competitive retail market and PPA strips below US average; above the <$45/MWh top anchor. as of | EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A www.eia.gov | |
| Price trajectory & exposure 25% of dimension | 6 /10 | Energy-only market exposes loads to scarcity-price volatility but has no capacity-market pass-through; SB6 adds transmission cost contribution for new large loads. as of | Texas SB 6 (89R, signed June 2025) capitol.texas.gov | |
| Cost certainty / contractability 15% of dimension | 9 /10 | Deep, liquid USD PPA market with routine 10-15 yr fixed tenors and retail choice for industrial load. as of | ERCOT market rules / LBNL utility-scale market reports emp.lbl.gov |
Speed to Build — 7.8/10 (weight 17.5%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Permitting regime 40% of dimension | 8.5 /10 | No state-level environmental review for most private data center builds; county/municipal permitting is fast and by-right in most siting areas. as of | Texas statutes (no state EIA-equivalent for private DC construction); TCEQ air permitting only for on-site generation www.tceq.texas.gov | |
| Observed construction velocity 35% of dimension | 7.5 /10 | Completed hyperscale campuses (e.g., Stargate Abilene first buildings energized roughly a year from groundbreaking per sponsor disclosures) are the fastest observed in cohort; internal project DB not yet populated. as of | OpenAI/Oracle Stargate Abilene sponsor disclosures openai.com | |
| Labor & supply capacity 25% of dimension | 7 /10 | Deep EPC and construction labor market, but acute competition for electrical trades amid concurrent gigaprojects; BLS shows tight electrician labor in TX metros. as of | US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics www.bls.gov |
Regulatory & AI Policy Environment — 7/10 (weight 12.5%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI-specific law in force 35% of dimension | 7 /10 | Texas Responsible AI Governance Act (HB 149) in force Jan 1 2026: light-touch, government-focused obligations, no compute thresholds or licensing for private training. as of | Texas HB 149 (89R, TRAIGA) capitol.texas.gov | |
| DC-specific regulation 35% of dimension | 6.5 /10 | SB6 in force: uniform interconnection standards for >=75 MW loads, mandatory emergency-curtailment protocols for post-2025 interconnections, cost-contribution and disclosure duties — clear but adds operating constraints. as of | Texas SB 6 (89R, signed June 2025) capitol.texas.gov | |
| Regulatory predictability 30% of dimension | 7.5 /10 | US WGI Regulatory Quality / Rule of Law in high-80s percentiles; some churn in ERCOT large-load rulemaking (PGRR145 et al.) tempers the top of the range. as of | World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators www.worldbank.org |
Fiscal & Incentives — 7.2/10 (weight 10%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enacted incentives 40% of dimension | 7 /10 | Tax Code §151.359 sales-tax exemption for qualifying data center equipment in force; JETI (Ch. 403) school-tax abatement excludes data centers, capping incentive depth. as of | Texas Tax Code §151.359 statutes.capitol.texas.gov | |
| Headline tax burden 40% of dimension | 8 /10 | No state corporate income tax (franchise margin tax ~0.75%); federal 21% CIT applies; favorable for capital-intensive build. as of | Texas Comptroller — Franchise Tax comptroller.texas.gov | |
| Incentive durability 20% of dimension | 6 /10 | Ch. 313 lapsed in 2022 and its successor excluded DCs; recurring legislative scrutiny of large-load incentives creates moderate sunset/contestation risk. as of | Texas Government Code Ch. 403 (JETI Act) legislative record statutes.capitol.texas.gov |
Capital & Ecosystem Depth — 7.4/10 (weight 12.5%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Committed capital 40% of dimension | 9.5 /10 | Largest signed/financed AI-infrastructure pipeline in cohort (Stargate Abilene and multiple closed hyperscaler financings, E1 filings). as of | Oracle/OpenAI Stargate disclosures; SEC filings www.sec.gov | |
| Ecosystem 30% of dimension | 9 /10 | DFW/San Antonio/Austin among largest US DC markets, dense long-haul fiber, hyperscaler presence, unrestricted GPU imports (domestic). as of | EIA/ERCOT load data; TeleGeography fiber maps www.submarinecablemap.com | |
| Sovereign/anchor capital availability 30% of dimension | 3 /10 | No sovereign wealth fund or state co-investment vehicle targeting AI infrastructure; depth of private capital is captured in committed_capital. as of | IFSWF member directory (no US state AI-infra SWF) www.ifswf.org |
Stability & Execution Risk — 8/10 (weight 15%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political/policy continuity 40% of dimension | 7 /10 | Stable institutions and durable pro-build state policy; US WGI Political Stability mid-range (~45th pct) on polarization, federal AI/energy policy churn. as of | World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators www.worldbank.org | |
| Currency, transfer & convertibility 35% of dimension | 9.5 /10 | USD reserve currency, no capital controls (IMF AREAER), AA+ sovereign. as of | IMF AREAER — United States www.elibrary-areaer.imf.org | |
| Physical & geopolitical risk 25% of dimension | 7.5 /10 | No conflict or sanctions exposure; material weather-event exposure (Winter Storm Uri load-shed history, hurricanes, extreme heat) on a grid with limited external interconnection. as of | FERC/NERC Feb 2021 cold weather event report www.ferc.gov |
Signals
Recent ingested source documents linked to this jurisdiction via extracted claims or triage mentions, newest first.
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· The Texas Tribune · relevance 0.00
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· FERC eCollection — Accepted Filings · relevance 0.20
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· pv magazine USA · relevance 0.30
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· HPCwire · relevance 0.10
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· The Street · relevance 0.20
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· The Texas Tribune · relevance 0.00
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· Heatmap News · relevance 0.60
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· thenextweb.com · relevance 0.00
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· WFAA · relevance 0.65
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· The Texas Tribune · relevance 0.00
Scores are reproducible from the frozen inputs snapshot recorded at computation time (2026-06-15T23:52:45+00:00). See the full methodology for rubrics, weights, and the evidence ladder.