Jurisdiction Index / US — Pennsylvania (PJM)
US — Pennsylvania (PJM)
JCI composite · as of · methodology v0
US — Pennsylvania (PJM) scores 60.4/100 on the Compute Institute Jurisdiction Competitiveness Index (Tier 2, Competitive), ranking #15 of 31 rated jurisdictions with a positive outlook, as of June 25, 2026 under methodology v0. Its strongest dimension is Stability & Execution Risk at 8.4/10; its weakest is Power Availability & Deliverability at 3.8/10. 17 of 22 sub-factors are scored on E1–E2 evidence (data confidence B). The positive outlook is driven by 5 forward-looking signals (+0.93 net points, E3–E4 evidence): permitting regime (E3), observed construction velocity (E3), labor & supply capacity (E3), ecosystem (E3) and physical & geopolitical risk (E3).
Dimension breakdown
Seven dimensions, each 0–10, weighted per methodology v0. JCI = Σ(dimension × weight) × 10.
Power Availability & Deliverability
Power Cost
Speed to Build
Regulatory & AI Policy Environment
Fiscal & Incentives
Capital & Ecosystem Depth
Stability & Execution Risk
Outlook drivers — Positive (+0.93 net points)
Forward-looking E3–E4 signals. They move the outlook only — never the base score.
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Permitting regime +0.35 pts as of
“PA permitting is 'managed,' not fast-track. The Homer City brownfield coal-to-gas conversion received PA DEP air-quality plan approval on Nov ~18-20, 2025, clearing site prep for a ~4.4 GW campus — a workable but multi-step environmental process, not the ~18mo greenfield ideal. PA has NO DC-specific permitting/tax incentive (unlike TX/VA/AZ) and an ~8.99% CIT, so no statutory acceleration. Institutions are stable (US rule of law, no judicial blocking of state permits). The real chokepoint is federal FERC/PJM interconnection rather than state permitting, so state regime alone lands mid-range. Evidence E3 (press reporting the DEP permit; PA DEP primary docket not directly fetched). VERIFICATION: The cited DataCenterDynamics URL does NOT mention the DEP air-quality approval or the Nov 2025 date (it confirms Homer City brownfield, Kiewit EPC, 4.4-4.5 GW campus, 2027 ops); the permit fact is independently confirmed via BusinessWire/Homer City Redevelopment press release (~Nov 20, 2025) and is contested on appeal by Clean Air Council/PennFuture/Sierra Club — fact holds, source attribution is imperfect, E3 retained, score unchanged.”
Source: DataCenterDynamics / Homer City Redevelopment — PA DEP air-quality plan approval ~Nov 20, 2025 (www.datacenterdynamics.com)
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Observed construction velocity -0.92 pts as of
“The binding velocity constraint is the PJM interconnection queue: average application-to-commercial-operation has risen from <2 years (2008) to OVER 8 YEARS (2025), with ~30,000 MW still in the transition queue to be processed in 2026. The flagship AWS/Talen Susquehanna load expansion was actually BLOCKED by FERC (Nov 1, 2024) for cost-shift/reliability reasons and had to be restructured into a front-of-meter PPA in June 2025 — direct evidence that fast greenfield grid connection is not available. Developers route around this via brownfield repowering (Homer City ~5-year build on an existing plant; Talen's existing 2.5 GW nuclear), which is faster than de novo but still multi-year. This is materially slower than the '12-18mo typical' (=5) anchor, hence ~3.5. Evidence E3 (queue timeline via PJM/press; FERC ruling is regulatory primary). VERIFICATION: Utility Dive URL CONFIRMS the FERC rejection (Nov 1, 2024) and the ~$140M cost-shift concern, but does NOT contain the '8+ year queue' or '30,000 MW transition queue' figures attributed to it; those are independently confirmed via PJM/RMI 2026 reporting (<2yr 2008 → 8+yr 2025; 30,000 MW remaining for 2026 processing) — both facts hold, source attribution imperfect, evidence honestly E3 (not E1), score unchanged.”
Source: Utility Dive — FERC rejects Talen-Amazon interconnection (Nov 1 2024); PJM 8+yr queue per separate PJM/RMI reporting (www.utilitydive.com)
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Labor & supply capacity +0.00 pts as of
“PA Dept. of Labor & Industry projects a shortfall of 300,000+ skilled trade workers by 2030, layered on a national data-center construction labor crunch (ABC: ~439,000-worker shortage in 2025, projected 349K-499K additional needed by 2026; ~11-month average contractor backlogs; DC roles paying ~30% wage premiums that poach trades). This is meaningful scarcity, not acute collapse: PA retains a deep legacy industrial/EPC and power-plant workforce and union building trades, and Tier-1 EPCs (e.g., Kiewit at Homer City) are committing to multi-GW PA builds — evidence the labor base can be mobilized for marquee projects even if broad trades depth is thin. Net mid-range, scarcity-leaning. Evidence E3 (PA L&I figure via press; ABC trade-association data). VERIFICATION: The cited LVB URL DIRECTLY supports the '300,000+ skilled trade workers by 2030' figure attributed to the PA Department of Labor & Industry — fully supported, E3 retained, score unchanged.”
Source: Lehigh Valley Business / PA Dept. of Labor & Industry — 300K+ skilled-trades shortfall by 2030 (lvb.com)
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Ecosystem +0.38 pts as of
“PA is an emerging, fast-growing secondary DC market — NOT the largest (the 10-anchor). CBRE (H2 2025) confirms Northern Virginia remains the largest US market (4,039.6 MW inventory, 37% YoY growth, 0.5% vacancy — lowest among primary US markets), with Pennsylvania cited among emerging markets drawing investor/hyperscaler interest for abundant land, flexible permitting, and easier power access. PA does anchor a top-tier hyperscaler (AWS/Amazon $20B, Susquehanna nuclear) and sits in the dense PJM/fiber corridor (with attendant PJM capacity-price cost exposure), but it does not host all hyperscalers and is far from the largest market. Strong power-led pipeline and at least one anchor hyperscaler, mid-density ecosystem, clearly secondary-tier → 6. VERIFICATION: URL live; NoVA figures (4,039.6 MW / 37% YoY / 0.5% vacancy) confirmed verbatim — justification's '~4,040 MW' is accurate. Correction: CBRE groups PA with Nevada and Michigan (not 'Ohio, Michigan, Texas'), and the 'gigawatt sites' phrasing is not in this release; these are factual edits that do NOT change the secondary-tier conclusion. CBRE is a commercial brokerage → E3 is correct. Score 6 holds.”
Source: CBRE H2 2025 — US operational rankings (Phoenix #5, 807.3 MW); Northern Virginia largest market (www.cbre.com)
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Physical & geopolitical risk +1.12 pts as of
“Pennsylvania is an inland Mid-Atlantic state with no active conflict, no coastal-hurricane storm-surge exposure, and no significant seismic zone; its FEMA NRI hazard profile is dominated by riverine/inland flooding and winter weather — well-characterized, insurable, and far from a disaster-zone anchor. Crucially for a data-center jurisdiction, PA has strong energy/physical security: EIA confirms it was the 3rd-largest US net electricity generator at 241,498,648 MWh in 2024, anchored by the Susquehanna nuclear plant supplying the AWS deal — i.e., abundant in-state baseload rather than import-dependent. The deduction from a 9-10 reflects genuine residual riverine flood and ice-storm exposure and PJM regional grid-adequacy strain (capacity auctions clearing at the price cap on data-center-driven load growth), not weather catastrophe risk. The energy-security generation figure is E1 (EIA); the FEMA NRI hazard characterization for PA is an anchored assessment from FEMA's published methodology rather than a fetched state-level NRI score, so this is honestly E3. VERIFICATION: EIA source re-fetched and confirms 241,498,648 MWh (rank 3rd, 2024); however the cited EIA page does NOT substantiate the original 'top US electricity-export state' claim — that phrase has been REMOVED as unverified by the source. FEMA NRI characterization remains unfetched (methodology-based), so E3 is retained and score 8 upheld.”
Source: EIA — Pennsylvania Electricity Profile 2024 (www.eia.gov)
Sub-factor scores and sources
Every base-scored input below carries E1–E2 evidence: a justification, an evidence-level grade, and a link to the underlying source document.
Power Availability & Deliverability — 3.8/10 (weight 20%)
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Sub-factor
|
Score
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Justification
|
Evidence
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Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grid headroom 40% of dimension | 3.5 /10 | Pennsylvania sits in PJM, where headroom for new large load is constrained but not under moratorium. PJM utilities have collectively committed to serve roughly TWICE as much new large-load demand as the region has planned new generation to support (forecast peak +5,250 MW for 202... as of | PJM Inside Lines (2027/2028 BRA: 134,479 MW, cap $333.44/MW-day, +5,100 MW data centers) + Wood Mackenzie (utilities committed to 2x planned generation) insidelines.pjm.com | |
| Time-to-power 35% of dimension | 1.5 /10 | Per PJM, the average time from interconnection application to commercial operation has risen from under 2 years in 2008 to OVER 8 YEARS in 2025. That places typical grid-tied energization at the anchor's '0 = >6yr' floor. It is not a flat 0 because the reformed process now target... as of | PJM Inside Lines / RMI 'Speed to Power' (interconnection timeline >8 years in 2025; ~63 GW transition queue free to proceed) insidelines.pjm.com | |
| Energy mix & expandability 15% of dimension | 7 /10 | Firm generation pipeline is strong: Pennsylvania is the #1 net electricity exporter (est. 87 million MWh exported in 2024, nearly double the #2 state), with natural gas at ~59% of in-state generation (2023, Marcellus-fed) and ranking among the top nuclear states at 32% share (202... as of | Utility Dive / Talen 8-K (FERC Nov 2024 ISA rejection; June 2025 1,920 MW front-of-the-meter restructure; FERC Dec 18 2025 co-location order) + EIA PA profile www.utilitydive.com | |
| Water availability 10% of dimension | 8 /10 | Water is abundant relative to arid Western DC markets. Pennsylvania's data-center load concentrates in the humid, water-rich Susquehanna River Basin. The SRBC regulates withdrawals, has issued only ONE hyperscale permit in the basin as of early 2026 (the AWS Salem Township campus... as of | Susquehanna River Basin Commission - Data Centers & Water Use (Resolution 2025-03 dry cooling; AWS Salem Twp = sole hyperscale permit; case-by-case approval) www.srbc.gov |
Power Cost — 4.3/10 (weight 12.5%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
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Source
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial electricity price 60% of dimension | 4.2 /10 | EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 5.6.A (data through April 2026) puts Pennsylvania's average INDUSTRIAL retail electricity price at 9.82 cents/kWh = ~$98.2/MWh all-in, vs the US industrial average of 8.66 cents/kWh ($86.6/MWh) — PA runs ~13% above the national industrial average.... as of | EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A www.eia.gov | |
| Price trajectory & exposure 25% of dimension | 3 /10 | PA sits entirely in PJM, which is acutely capacity-cost exposed. The 2026/2027 Base Residual Auction cleared at the FERC-approved cap of $329.17/MW-day (UCAP) for the whole RTO — up sharply from $269.92/MW-day the prior year — and the 2027/2028 BRA (Dec 2025) hit the cap AGAIN at... as of | PJM 2026/2027 BRA Report (Jul 2025) & 2027/2028 BRA Report (Dec 2025) www.pjm.com | |
| Cost certainty / contractability 15% of dimension | 7 /10 | Direct primary evidence that long-dated fixed power contracts are contractable in PA: Talen Energy and AWS signed a 17-year, ~$18B PPA for up to 1,920 MW of carbon-free output from the 2.5-GW Susquehanna nuclear plant (term to 2042, with extension option), restructured into a gri... as of | Talen Energy press release / SEC 8-K: Talen Energy Expands Nuclear Energy Relationship with Amazon (Jun 11, 2025) ir.talenenergy.com |
Speed to Build (weight 17.5%)
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Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
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Source
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| Permitting regime 40% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
| Observed construction velocity 35% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
| Labor & supply capacity 25% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
Regulatory & AI Policy Environment — 6.7/10 (weight 12.5%)
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Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI-specific law in force 35% of dimension | 7 /10 | Pennsylvania has NO comprehensive or restrictive AI statute in force as of mid-2026 — a permissive vacuum that favors AI/data-center development. Governor Shapiro's June 2026 AI actions are executive tools, not binding restrictions: an AI Literacy Toolkit, an AI Enforcement Task... as of | Commonwealth of Pennsylvania — Governor Shapiro AI press release (Jun 2026) www.pa.gov | |
| DC-specific regulation 35% of dimension | 6 /10 | Pennsylvania DOES have a DC-specific incentive: a 25-year sales-and-use tax exemption for qualifying data-center equipment under Act 84 of 2016 as amended by Act 13 of 2019 and Act 25 of 2021. Thresholds: $75M investment + 25 FTE jobs (counties <=250k pop) or $100M + 45 jobs (lar... as of | Server Country — Pennsylvania Data Center Policy (Act 84/13/25 exemption; Nov 2025 PUC Tentative Order) servercountry.org | |
| Regulatory predictability 30% of dimension | 7 /10 | Pennsylvania inherits high US institutional quality: strong rule of law, independent courts, USD reserve currency, no expropriation or retroactive reversals. No retroactive policy reversals on data-center or AI investment have occurred; the Act 84/13/25 tax exemption is a stable... as of | World Bank — Worldwide Governance Indicators, Rule of Law Percentile Rank (figure unconfirmed at source URL; JS-gated portal) data.worldbank.org |
Fiscal & Incentives — 7.2/10 (weight 10%)
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Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
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Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enacted incentives 40% of dimension | 9 /10 | Contrary to the assumption that PA has no DC-specific incentive, Pennsylvania DOES have an enacted, DC-specific Computer Data Center Equipment Program: a full sales-and-use-tax exemption on computer data center equipment 'sold to, used, or consumed in a certified data center,' au... as of | PA Department of Revenue — Computer Data Center Equipment Program www.pa.gov | |
| Headline tax burden 40% of dimension | 5 /10 | Pennsylvania's Corporate Net Income Tax (CNIT) is officially 7.49% for tax year 2026 per the PA Department of Revenue, mid-way through a statutory phase-down (Act 53 of 2022) from a former 9.99% to 4.99% by 2031 (2027: 6.99%, 2028: 6.49%, 2029: 5.99%, 2030: 5.49%). Combined with... as of | PA Department of Revenue — Corporation Tax Rates www.pa.gov | |
| Incentive durability 20% of dimension | 8 /10 | The exemption is structurally durable: each certified owner/operator receives up to 25 full calendar years of exemption from the year of certification, and the authorizing statute (Act 84/2016 as amended by Act 25/2021) carries no program sunset date — so a center certified today... as of | WHYY — How PA lawmakers are responding to data centers (HB2198 / HB2153) whyy.org |
Capital & Ecosystem Depth — 7/10 (weight 12.5%)
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Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
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Evidence
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Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Committed capital 40% of dimension | 10 /10 | Committed/financed DC capex in PA vastly exceeds the $10B+ anchor. Governor's office and PA DCED (E1 govt primary) confirm Amazon's committed 'at least $20 billion' AI-infrastructure investment (June 9, 2025) — described at source as 'the largest private sector investment in the... as of | PA DCED — Gov. Shapiro Announces Amazon Plans to Invest $20 Billion in Pennsylvania for AI Infrastructure dced.pa.gov | |
| Ecosystem 30% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
| Sovereign/anchor capital availability 30% of dimension | 3 /10 | There is NO Pennsylvania state co-investment vehicle (no sovereign-wealth-style equity fund co-investing in DC capex), so the top anchor (10=state co-investment vehicle) is not met. The state's support is indirect fiscal incentive, not co-invested capital: the Computer Data Cente... as of | PA Department of Revenue — Computer Data Center Equipment Program www.pa.gov |
Stability & Execution Risk — 8.4/10 (weight 15%)
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Sub-factor
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Score
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Justification
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Evidence
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Source
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political/policy continuity 40% of dimension | 7 /10 | Stable US/Commonwealth institutions with no expropriation or reversal risk, and the policy trend is actually improving: the PA Dept of Revenue confirms the Corporate Net Income Tax is phasing DOWN from 7.49% in 2026 to 4.99% by 2031 (Act 45 of 2025 accelerated the original Act 53... as of | PA Department of Revenue — Corporate Net Income Tax www.pa.gov | |
| Currency, transfer & convertibility 35% of dimension | 10 /10 | Pennsylvania transacts entirely in US dollars — a fully convertible reserve currency with no capital controls, no transfer restrictions, and no convertibility or sovereign-default risk relevant to a US state. This is corroborated by normal-functioning dollar-denominated electrici... as of | EIA — Pennsylvania Electricity Profile 2024 www.eia.gov | |
| Physical & geopolitical risk 25% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
Signals
Recent ingested source documents linked to this jurisdiction via extracted claims or triage mentions, newest first.
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· Inside Climate News · relevance 0.20
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· Data Center Dynamics · relevance 0.85
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· Data Center Dynamics · relevance 0.15
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· Area Development — News · relevance 0.00
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· Area Development — News · relevance 0.20
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· Data Center Dynamics · relevance 0.65
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· PJM Inside Lines · relevance 0.60
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· Site Selection · relevance 0.30
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· Area Development — News · relevance 0.00
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· The Conversation · relevance 0.70
Scores are reproducible from the frozen inputs snapshot recorded at computation time (2026-06-25T20:22:16+00:00). See the full methodology for rubrics, weights, and the evidence ladder.