Jurisdiction Index / US — Ohio (AEP Ohio / PJM)
US — Ohio (AEP Ohio / PJM)
JCI composite · as of · methodology v0
US — Ohio (AEP Ohio / PJM) scores 61.2/100 on the Compute Institute Jurisdiction Competitiveness Index (Tier 2, Competitive), ranking #14 of 30 rated jurisdictions with a positive outlook, as of June 15, 2026 under methodology v0. Its strongest dimension is Capital & Ecosystem Depth at 8/10; its weakest is Power Availability & Deliverability at 4.3/10. 16 of 22 sub-factors are scored on E1–E2 evidence (data confidence B). The positive outlook is driven by 6 forward-looking signals (+3.51 net points, E3–E4 evidence): observed construction velocity (E3), labor & supply capacity (E3), AI-specific law in force (E3), committed capital (E3), sovereign/anchor capital availability (E3) and physical & geopolitical risk (E3).
Dimension breakdown
Seven dimensions, each 0–10, weighted per methodology v0. JCI = Σ(dimension × weight) × 10.
Power Availability & Deliverability
Power Cost
Speed to Build
Regulatory & AI Policy Environment
Fiscal & Incentives
Capital & Ecosystem Depth
Stability & Execution Risk
Outlook drivers — Positive (+3.51 net points)
Forward-looking E3–E4 signals. They move the outlook only — never the base score.
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Observed construction velocity +0.92 pts as of
“Thin/honest grade from sponsor disclosures: Microsoft's $420M New Albany build runs July 2025 start to end-2027 completion (~2.5 yr), and central Ohio has energized many campuses since the 2020s build-out — but per-project announced-to-energized medians are not publicly standardized and energization for queued AEP load is gated to 2031+.”
Source: DCD: Microsoft $420M New Albany data center timeline (2025) (www.datacenterdynamics.com)
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Labor & supply capacity +0.66 pts as of
“Central Ohio has demonstrated deep EPC/construction-labor depth absorbing 40+ DC campuses plus Intel's semiconductor fab simultaneously; long-lead grid equipment (transformers) and the multi-year energization queue are the binding constraints rather than local trades.”
Source: ABC6 / regional reporting on Ohio data-center construction surge (2025-2026) (abc6onyourside.com)
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AI-specific law in force +0.44 pts as of
“Ohio has enacted no comprehensive AI statute as of mid-2026 (only proposed bills such as SB 163/HB 524 and a budget directive for school AI policies); the environment is permissive-but-uncertain rather than a favorable enacted regime, scored mid-range for high baseline predictability absent AI-specific rules.”
Source: Ohio Capital Journal: Why Ohio doesn't have any artificial intelligence regulations (May 18, 2026) (ohiocapitaljournal.com)
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Committed capital +1.50 pts as of
“Honest grade from sponsor disclosures: >$20B is being invested across ~40 data-center campuses planned or underway in central Ohio, including Meta's ~1 GW 'Prometheus' AI supercluster and Microsoft, Google, AWS facilities clustered around New Albany — among the densest US hyperscale capital footprints.”
Source: The American Prospect / regional reporting on $20B+ central Ohio DC investment (2026) (prospect.org)
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Sovereign/anchor capital availability -1.12 pts as of
“Honest low grade: as a US state, Ohio has no sovereign-wealth anchor capital; DC funding is private hyperscaler and developer balance-sheet capital rather than state-directed investment vehicles.”
Source: The American Prospect / regional reporting on $20B+ central Ohio DC investment (2026) (prospect.org)
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Physical & geopolitical risk +1.12 pts as of
“Ohio faces negligible domestic-conflict risk and minimal natural-disaster exposure (no hurricanes, low seismicity, inland location); the main residual concern is grid-security/reliability strain from concentrated large loads rather than geopolitical threat.”
Source: Axios/E&E News: 130+ data centers operating in metro Columbus (2025) (www.eenews.net)
Sub-factor scores and sources
Every base-scored input below carries E1–E2 evidence: a justification, an evidence-level grade, and a link to the underlying source document.
Power Availability & Deliverability — 4.3/10 (weight 20%)
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Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grid headroom 40% of dimension | 4 /10 | AEP Ohio's data-center interconnection queue peaked near 30 GW of service inquiries against a ~12 GW system peak and was cut to ~13 GW only after the new tariff imposed financial accountability; 36 formal study requests (32 in Central Ohio) total ~9.8 GW, and a moratorium on new... as of | DCD: AEP Ohio slashes data center pipeline by more than half (30 GW → 13 GW), Sept 2025 www.datacenterdynamics.com | |
| Time-to-power 35% of dimension | 3.5 /10 | AEP Ohio's own filings put new DC load ramps beginning ~2031 with phased energization through 2035 for queued projects, reflecting multi-year (4+ yr) firm-power timelines under the tariff's 4-year ramp structure; PJM transmission-service constraints lengthen large-load offers wel... as of | DCD: AEP Ohio slashes data center pipeline by more than half (30 GW → 13 GW), Sept 2025 www.datacenterdynamics.com | |
| Energy mix & expandability 15% of dimension | 5.5 /10 | Behind-the-meter / on-site generation is legal and being deployed — OPSB approved (June 9 2025) Williams' Will-Power 'Socrates South' 200 MW behind-the-meter gas plant serving Meta's New Albany campus, one of two 200 MW units (~400 MW combined) — but PJM's two consecutive price-c... as of | PowerMag: New 200-MW Gas-Fired Plant in Ohio Will Power Meta Data Center (Socrates, OPSB approval Jun 9 2025) www.powermag.com | |
| Water availability 10% of dimension | 6 /10 | Central Ohio draws from three Scioto/Big Walnut reservoirs (Griggs, O'Shaughnessy, Hoover) in a humid, low-to-moderate baseline-water-stress region (far below arid Texas), but Ohio EPA projects industrial water demand up 120% 2021-2050 with possible shortfalls absent the $1.6B ne... as of | Axios Columbus / E&E News on Columbus water supply & Ohio EPA 120% projection (Aug 2025) www.axios.com |
Power Cost — 4.5/10 (weight 12.5%)
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Sub-factor
|
Score
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Justification
|
Evidence
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Source
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial electricity price 60% of dimension | 5 /10 | EIA Electric Power Monthly reports Ohio's average industrial retail price at 9.81 c/kWh (~$98/MWh) for March 2026, up sharply from 7.71 c/kWh a year earlier — more than double the <$45/MWh top anchor and roughly midway to the >$140/MWh floor. as of | EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A www.eia.gov | |
| Price trajectory & exposure 25% of dimension | 2.5 /10 | PJM capacity prices have hit the FERC Net-CONE cap two years running — $329.17/MW-day for 2026/27 (up 22% from $269.92) and $333.44/MW-day for 2027/28 — driving record capacity-cost pass-through to AEP Ohio loads with no near-term relief. as of | PJM 2026/2027 BRA Report (Jul 2025) & 2027/2028 BRA Report (Dec 2025) www.pjm.com | |
| Cost certainty / contractability 15% of dimension | 5.5 /10 | The AEP Ohio DC tariff offers contractual certainty via a 12-year structure (4-yr ramp + 8-yr minimum) but imposes an 85%-of-contracted-capacity minimum take, exit penalties, and collateral requirements; deep US PPA markets and on-site gas PPAs (Meta-Williams) provide tenor optio... as of | Vorys / PowerMag on PUCO-approved AEP Ohio DC tariff terms (Jul 2025) www.powermag.com |
Speed to Build — 6.5/10 (weight 17.5%)
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Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| Permitting regime 40% of dimension | 6.5 /10 | DC buildings themselves are permitted by local zoning (New Albany's pre-zoned International Business Park enables fast-track shell delivery), while on-site/grid generation >50 MW goes through the Ohio Power Siting Board, a state-led process taking roughly one year with expedited... as of | Ohio Power Siting Board — OPSB approves accelerated review of natural gas power plant opsb.ohio.gov | |
| Observed construction velocity 35% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
| Labor & supply capacity 25% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
Regulatory & AI Policy Environment — 6.5/10 (weight 12.5%)
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Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI-specific law in force 35% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
| DC-specific regulation 35% of dimension | 6 /10 | PUCO's July 2025 order created a real, first-of-kind DC-specific tariff (applies to new/expanded projects >25 MW) with 85% minimum-demand billing, stringent collateral/creditworthiness tests, ramp periods and exit penalties — a clear, if cost-shifting, regulatory regime now being... as of | PUCO order on AEP Ohio data center tariff via Vorys & KJK analysis (Jul-Nov 2025) www.vorys.com | |
| Regulatory predictability 30% of dimension | 7 /10 | World Bank WGI ranks the US at the 90.57th percentile for Regulatory Quality (2023) with comparably high Rule of Law, indicating strong baseline institutional predictability — but the 2026 data-center tax freeze, contested AEP tariff, and 2025 sovereign-rating downgrade temper it... as of | World Bank WGI (tradingeconomics mirror) — US Regulatory Quality percentile rank 90.57 (2023) tradingeconomics.com |
Fiscal & Incentives — 6.1/10 (weight 10%)
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Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enacted incentives 40% of dimension | 7 /10 | Ohio's enacted Data Center Tax Exemption grants a sales-tax exemption on eligible equipment (servers, networking, storage) for projects investing ≥$100M over 3 years with ≥$1.5M annual payroll; the program forwent ~$1.5-1.6B in state sales tax in 2025, evidencing real, material b... as of | JobsOhio Data Center Tax Exemption eligibility & Policy Matters Ohio cost analysis (2025) www.jobsohio.com | |
| Headline tax burden 40% of dimension | 6 /10 | US federal corporate income tax is 21% plus Ohio's low-rate Commercial Activity Tax (gross-receipts, ~0.26% above exemption threshold rather than a corporate income tax), a moderate combined burden; OECD Pillar Two 15% global minimum applies to large MNEs. as of | US federal 21% CIT + Ohio Commercial Activity Tax structure tax.ohio.gov | |
| Incentive durability 20% of dimension | 4.5 /10 | Durability is impaired: Gov. DeWine paused Tax Credit Authority consideration of all NEW data-center exemption requests on May 27 2026 pending a Joint Data Center Committee study, triggered by a May 21 2026 report that the exemption cost ~$1.6B in 2025 against a $136M forecast (~... as of | Governor DeWine announces pause of Data Center Tax Exemption (May 27, 2026) governor.ohio.gov |
Capital & Ecosystem Depth — 8/10 (weight 12.5%)
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Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Committed capital 40% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
| Ecosystem 30% of dimension | 8 /10 | Central Ohio hosts 130+ operating data centers plus the four major hyperscalers (Google, Microsoft, AWS, Meta), dense fiber, and adjacent Intel semiconductor fabrication — a mature, GPU-rich, export-unrestricted US ecosystem second only to Northern Virginia tier markets. as of | Axios/E&E News: 130+ data centers operating in metro Columbus (2025) www.eenews.net | |
| Sovereign/anchor capital availability 30% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
Stability & Execution Risk — 7.7/10 (weight 15%)
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Sub-factor
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Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political/policy continuity 40% of dimension | 7 /10 | The US scores high on WGI Regulatory Quality (90.57th percentile, 2023) and comparable Government Effectiveness, but the May 2026 data-center tax pause and contested AEP tariff show real intra-state policy volatility around DC-specific rules, tempering continuity below top anchor... as of | World Bank WGI (tradingeconomics mirror) — US Regulatory Quality percentile rank 90.57 (2023) tradingeconomics.com | |
| Currency, transfer & convertibility 35% of dimension | 8.5 /10 | USD is the world reserve currency with no capital controls and fully open transfer/convertibility; the US sovereign carries Moody's Aa1 (downgraded from Aaa May 2025), S&P AA+ and Fitch AA+ — high-grade but no longer triple-A. as of | Moody's downgrades US to Aa1 (May 16, 2025) ratings.moodys.com | |
| Physical & geopolitical risk 25% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
Signals
Recent ingested source documents linked to this jurisdiction via extracted claims or triage mentions, newest first.
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· Renewable Energy World · relevance 0.65
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· Reuters · relevance 0.70
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· Network World · relevance 0.90
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· PJM Inside Lines · relevance 0.60
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· Canary Media · relevance 0.35
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· Power Engineering · relevance 0.70
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· PJM Inside Lines · relevance 0.60
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· The Hill · relevance 0.70
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· Bloomberg Markets · relevance 0.70
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· PJM Inside Lines · relevance 0.60
Scores are reproducible from the frozen inputs snapshot recorded at computation time (2026-06-15T23:52:44+00:00). See the full methodology for rubrics, weights, and the evidence ladder.