Jurisdiction Index / US — North Carolina (Duke Energy)
US — North Carolina (Duke Energy)
JCI composite · as of · methodology v0
US — North Carolina (Duke Energy) scores 63.4/100 on the Compute Institute Jurisdiction Competitiveness Index (Tier 2, Competitive), ranking #7 of 30 rated jurisdictions with a positive outlook, as of June 15, 2026 under methodology v0. Its strongest dimension is Stability & Execution Risk at 7.8/10; its weakest is Power Availability & Deliverability at 4.7/10. 14 of 22 sub-factors are scored on E1–E2 evidence (data confidence B). The positive outlook is driven by 8 forward-looking signals (+3.14 net points, E3–E4 evidence): water availability (E3), permitting regime (E3), observed construction velocity (E3), labor & supply capacity (E3), AI-specific law in force (E3), committed capital (E3), sovereign/anchor capital availability (E3) and ecosystem (E3).
Dimension breakdown
Seven dimensions, each 0–10, weighted per methodology v0. JCI = Σ(dimension × weight) × 10.
Power Availability & Deliverability
Power Cost
Speed to Build
Regulatory & AI Policy Environment
Fiscal & Incentives
Capital & Ecosystem Depth
Stability & Execution Risk
Outlook drivers — Positive (+3.14 net points)
Forward-looking E3–E4 signals. They move the outlook only — never the base score.
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Water availability +0.30 pts as of
“North Carolina is a humid Southeast state with generally low-to-moderate baseline water stress on WRI Aqueduct 4.0 (Piedmont/Catawba and Triangle river basins), materially better than arid Western markets; localized basin and reservoir constraints exist but statewide supply is adequate for the current DC build-out.”
Source: WRI Aqueduct 4.0 Baseline Water Stress (US Southeast humid profile) (www.wri.org)
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Permitting regime +0.70 pts as of
“DC buildings are permitted by local county/municipal zoning with minimal state environmental review for private facilities, enabling fast shell delivery where pre-zoned — but a 2025-2026 wave of county-level moratoriums (Wendell through Dec 2026, Durham 60-day, Apex one-year, Harnett and Fayetteville pending) and UDO rewrites injects local entitlement uncertainty versus an 18-month by-right ideal.”
Source: WRAL: How each central-NC county is handling data-center plans (moratoriums/UDOs), Apr 2026 (www.wral.com)
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Observed construction velocity +0.61 pts as of
“Thin/honest grade from sponsor disclosures: WhiteFiber's NC-1 campus brought 24 MW online in Q4 2025 toward 99 MW secured (scalable to 200 MW), Google is investing $1B over two years to expand Lenoir, and multiple hyperscale campuses are advancing — but announced-to-energized medians are not publicly standardized and firm grid energization for large new load is gated to ~2030+.”
Source: DCD: Nscale/WhiteFiber NC-1 40 MW / 99 MW secured, 24 MW online Q4 2025 (2026) (www.datacenterdynamics.com)
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Labor & supply capacity +0.66 pts as of
“The Charlotte/Triangle/Piedmont-Triad corridor offers deep Southeast construction and EPC labor that has absorbed Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon campuses concurrently; the binding constraints are long-lead grid equipment and multi-year energization queues rather than local trades.”
Source: ABC Carolinas: NC data centers — construction, workforce and infrastructure impact (2026) (abccarolinas.org)
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AI-specific law in force +0.44 pts as of
“No binding North Carolina state AI statute governs data centers; the environment is permissive-but-uncertain rather than a favorable enacted regime, scored mid-range for high baseline predictability under US federal and common-law frameworks absent AI-specific rules.”
Source: World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (www.worldbank.org)
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Committed capital +1.00 pts as of
“Honest grade mixing firmer and announced capital: Amazon committed up to $10B (announced June 2025, ground broken Oct 2025) for a ~800-acre / 20-building Richmond County campus — NC's largest-ever capital project — Google is adding $1B at Lenoir (announced March 2026), and Nscale signed a 10-year, 40 MW colocation deal at WhiteFiber's NC-1 worth ~$865M in total contract value (not capex) — a deep, accelerating, largely private-balance-sheet hyperscale footprint anchored by Duke power siting.”
Source: DCD: Amazon breaks ground on $10bn ~800-acre Richmond County data center campus (2025) (www.datacenterdynamics.com)
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Sovereign/anchor capital availability -1.12 pts as of
“Honest low grade: as a US state, North Carolina has no sovereign-wealth anchor capital; data-center funding is private hyperscaler and developer balance-sheet capital (e.g. Amazon's up-to-$10B Richmond County campus) rather than any state-directed sovereign investment vehicle.”
Source: DCD: Amazon breaks ground on $10bn ~800-acre Richmond County data center campus (2025) (www.datacenterdynamics.com)
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Ecosystem +0.56 pts as of
“North Carolina hosts a maturing ecosystem with heritage hyperscale anchors (Apple Maiden in Catawba County, Google's Lenoir campus, Meta's Forest City campus) plus newer Charlotte/Triangle/Piedmont-Triad growth (Amazon Richmond County, WhiteFiber NC-1), fiber linking Charlotte–Raleigh-Durham–Winston-Salem, and export-unrestricted US GPU access — solid mid-tier, below Northern Virginia/Ohio top tiers.”
Source: ABC Carolinas: NC data centers — construction, workforce and infrastructure impact (2026) (abccarolinas.org)
Sub-factor scores and sources
Every base-scored input below carries E1–E2 evidence: a justification, an evidence-level grade, and a link to the underlying source document.
Power Availability & Deliverability — 4.7/10 (weight 20%)
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Sub-factor
|
Score
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Justification
|
Evidence
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Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grid headroom 40% of dimension | 5 /10 | Duke Energy's regulated Carolinas system holds 7.6 GW of executed data-center electric-service agreements (2.7 GW added in Q1 2026, nearly two-thirds already under construction) plus a 7.8 GW high-confidence late-stage pipeline (~15.4 GW total); data centers are projected to driv... as of | Utility Dive: Duke Energy 7.6 GW executed DC ESAs (2.7 GW added Q1) + 7.8 GW late-stage pipeline (2026) www.utilitydive.com | |
| Time-to-power 35% of dimension | 4 /10 | Duke's near-term firm large-load generation is gated to ~2030-2031 — the Anderson combined-cycle plant begins construction ~2027 for end-2030 in-service and NCUC won't rule until Q4 2026 — implying multi-year (roughly 3-4+ yr) timelines for new firm DC power well beyond the sub-1... as of | Utility Dive: Duke Energy 7.6 GW executed DC ESAs (2.7 GW added Q1) + 7.8 GW late-stage pipeline (2026) www.utilitydive.com | |
| Energy mix & expandability 15% of dimension | 5.5 /10 | Under HB951's 70%-by-2030 carbon mandate, Duke's 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan (filed Oct 1 2025) proposes adding ~9.7 GW of new natural gas by 2033 (five combined-cycle units + seven combustion turbines, in Person, Catawba, Rowan and Richmond counties) plus advanced nuclear and r... as of | Natural Gas Intel / Duke Energy: 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan ~9.7 GW gas by 2033 (Oct 2025) naturalgasintel.com | |
| Water availability 10% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
Power Cost — 6.4/10 (weight 12.5%)
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Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
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Source
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial electricity price 60% of dimension | 7 /10 | EIA data put North Carolina's average industrial retail electricity price at ~7.77 c/kWh (~$78/MWh) in the 2024 State Electricity Profile, corroborated at ~7.91 c/kWh as of December 2025 — well below the US industrial average and roughly two-thirds of the way from the >$140/MWh f... as of | EIA North Carolina Electricity Profile / State Electricity Profiles industrial price (2024) www.eia.gov | |
| Price trajectory & exposure 25% of dimension | 5 /10 | As a vertically-integrated regulated monopoly, Duke is seeking a ~15% rate increase over two years (~$20-30/month on residential bills) effective Jan 1 2027, with annual fuel riders passing through coal/gas/uranium costs and HB951 carbon-compliance and ~$103B capex driving upward... as of | WRAL / Sierra Club: Duke Energy Carolinas ~15% rate increase, new rates Jan 2027 (Dec 2025) www.sierraclub.org | |
| Cost certainty / contractability 15% of dimension | 6 /10 | Pricing certainty comes via Duke's regulated cost-of-service tariff plus a settlement requiring parties to petition the NCUC to open a docket designing large-load/DC tariffs (minimum bills, multi-year contracts to purchase power, and exit fees); 7.6 GW of data-center load already... as of | WRAL / Sierra Club: Duke Energy Carolinas ~15% rate increase, new rates Jan 2027 (Dec 2025) www.sierraclub.org |
Speed to Build (weight 17.5%)
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Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Permitting regime 40% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
| Observed construction velocity 35% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
| Labor & supply capacity 25% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
Regulatory & AI Policy Environment — 6.7/10 (weight 12.5%)
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Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI-specific law in force 35% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
| DC-specific regulation 35% of dimension | 5.5 /10 | DC-specific regulation is emerging not settled: responding to a June 6 2025 NCUC request, Duke filed (July 24 2025) a framework for integrating large loads >100 MW, the NCUC now requires Duke to file semiannual large-load reports, and a settlement directs a docket on large-load/D... as of | Nelson Mullins (Megawatt Minute): How Duke integrates data centers / large load in NC; NCUC June 6 request, July 24 filing (2025) www.nelsonmullins.com | |
| Regulatory predictability 30% of dimension | 8 /10 | World Bank WGI ranks the US at the ~90.57th percentile for Regulatory Quality (2023) with comparably high Rule of Law, indicating strong institutional predictability; North Carolina adds a stable, well-established NCUC regulated-utility framework on top. as of | World Bank WGI (tradingeconomics mirror) — US Regulatory Quality percentile rank 90.57 (2023) tradingeconomics.com |
Fiscal & Incentives — 7/10 (weight 10%)
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Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
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Source
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enacted incentives 40% of dimension | 7 /10 | North Carolina's enacted §105-164.13(55) sales-and-use tax exemption (effective Jan 1 2016) exempts qualifying data-center equipment AND electricity for facilities where the Secretary of Commerce certifies ≥$75M private investment within five years; NC Dept of Commerce estimates... as of | Sales Tax Institute / EDPNC: NC qualifying-datacenter sales & use tax exemption ($75M threshold) www.salestaxinstitute.com | |
| Headline tax burden 40% of dimension | 7.5 /10 | US federal corporate income tax is 21% plus North Carolina's nation-low corporate income tax, which is legislatively phasing out — 2.25% in 2025, 2.0% in 2026, 1% in 2028, and 0% by 2030 — yielding one of the lowest combined US corporate burdens; OECD Pillar Two 15% global minimu... as of | PwC / BDO: North Carolina enacts corporate income tax phase-out (2.25% 2025 → 0% 2030) www.pwc.com | |
| Incentive durability 20% of dimension | 6 /10 | The exemption is statutory (in effect since 2016) with a defined $75M five-year investment threshold rather than discretionary, giving solid durability; however, 2026 legislative and press scrutiny (VPM/WHQR/WUNC reporting and bills questioning DC supply/electricity tax breaks) i... as of | VPM/WHQR/WUNC: Should NC data-center supply & electricity tax breaks change? (Apr-May 2026) www.vpm.org |
Capital & Ecosystem Depth (weight 12.5%)
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Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| Committed capital 40% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
| Ecosystem 30% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
| Sovereign/anchor capital availability 30% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
Stability & Execution Risk — 7.8/10 (weight 15%)
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Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political/policy continuity 40% of dimension | 7 /10 | The US scores high on WGI Government Effectiveness and Regulatory Quality (~90.57th percentile, 2023) and North Carolina runs a stable NCUC regulated-utility regime, but a 2025-2026 wave of county DC moratoriums, a contested Duke rate case, and legislative scrutiny of DC tax brea... as of | World Bank WGI (tradingeconomics mirror) — US Regulatory Quality percentile rank 90.57 (2023) tradingeconomics.com | |
| Currency, transfer & convertibility 35% of dimension | 9 /10 | USD is the world reserve currency with no capital controls and fully open transfer/convertibility; the US sovereign carries Moody's Aa1 (downgraded from Aaa May 2025), S&P AA+ and Fitch AA+ — high-grade but no longer triple-A. as of | Moody's downgrades US to Aa1 (May 16, 2025) ratings.moodys.com | |
| Physical & geopolitical risk 25% of dimension | 7.5 /10 | North Carolina faces negligible domestic-conflict/geopolitical risk under the stable US framework, but carries genuine physical exposure: Hurricane Helene's September 2024 western-NC devastation (107 NC deaths, record French Broad/Swannanoa flooding, Asheville without clean water... as of | WRAL: Hurricane Helene by the numbers — western NC damage, one year later (Sept 2025) www.wral.com |
Signals
Recent ingested source documents linked to this jurisdiction via extracted claims or triage mentions, newest first.
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· Canary Media · relevance 0.60
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· Bisnow · relevance 0.70
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· Google News Business · relevance 0.35
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· Reason · relevance 0.65
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· Canary Media · relevance 0.35
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· Bloomberg Technology · relevance 0.70
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· Bisnow · relevance 0.70
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· Reason · relevance 0.00
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· Canary Media · relevance 0.20
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SoVaNOW · relevance 0.70
Scores are reproducible from the frozen inputs snapshot recorded at computation time (2026-06-15T23:52:44+00:00). See the full methodology for rubrics, weights, and the evidence ladder.