Jurisdiction Index / US — Minnesota (Xcel / MISO)
US — Minnesota (Xcel / MISO)
JCI composite · as of · methodology v0
US — Minnesota (Xcel / MISO) scores 59.3/100 on the Compute Institute Jurisdiction Competitiveness Index (Tier 3, Contested), ranking #16 of 30 rated jurisdictions with a stable outlook, as of June 15, 2026 under methodology v0. Its strongest dimension is Stability & Execution Risk at 8.4/10; its weakest is Capital & Ecosystem Depth at 3.3/10. 18 of 22 sub-factors are scored on E1–E2 evidence (data confidence A). The stable outlook is driven by 4 forward-looking signals (+0.18 net points, E3–E4 evidence): permitting regime (E3), observed construction velocity (E3), AI-specific law in force (E3) and committed capital (E3).
Dimension breakdown
Seven dimensions, each 0–10, weighted per methodology v0. JCI = Σ(dimension × weight) × 10.
Power Availability & Deliverability
Power Cost
Speed to Build
Regulatory & AI Policy Environment
Fiscal & Incentives
Capital & Ecosystem Depth
Stability & Execution Risk
Outlook drivers — Stable (+0.18 net points)
Forward-looking E3–E4 signals. They move the outlook only — never the base score.
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Permitting regime -0.70 pts as of
“Minnesota environmental review (EAW/AUAR/EIS) for large DCs is now contested: on 22 May 2026 a Goodhue County district judge granted a temporary restraining order halting all construction on Google's ~2,700 MW Project Skyway (Pine Island), after the Minnesota Center for Environmental Advocacy sued the City of Pine Island and Ryan Companies over an inadequate AUAR addressing water, electricity and GHG impacts — a live precedent that pulls the score well below by-right timelines and signals real schedule risk for hyperscale projects.”
Source: Construction Dive — Judge halts Google data center project in Minnesota (May 2026) (www.constructiondive.com)
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Observed construction velocity -0.31 pts as of
“Thin internal-DB signal graded honestly: Meta's $800M Rosemount campus (715,000 sq ft on 280 acres, built by Mortenson) is progressing toward a 2026 opening, but the largest project — Google Project Skyway — is under a court-ordered construction halt, and the operating fleet is just 13 DCs / ~43 MW, so demonstrated hyperscale build velocity is early-stage and partly stalled rather than proven at scale.”
Source: DCD / MN Governor's Office — Meta Rosemount data center; Construction Dive — Project Skyway halt (2025–2026) (www.datacenterdynamics.com)
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AI-specific law in force +0.44 pts as of
“Minnesota has no binding compute/AI statute governing data centers; it has enacted narrow consumer-facing AI provisions (e.g. deepfake/election and nonconsensual-image laws) but nothing constraining AI-infrastructure operations, leaving a permissive-but-uncertain regime that scores mid-range rather than a top mark given unresolved policy direction at both state and federal levels.”
Source: Jones Walker LLP — Tax Breaks vs. Grid Strain: Minnesota's Data Center Balancing Act (2025) (www.joneswalker.com)
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Committed capital +0.75 pts as of
“Internal-DB-fed, graded honestly: substantial financed capital is committed — Google's ~2,700 MW Project Skyway (Pine Island) and Meta's $800M Rosemount campus anchor the pipeline — but Skyway is under a court-ordered construction halt (TRO 22 May 2026), so a large share of headline committed capital is at active legal risk; the dollars are real and financed, hence above-midpoint, but discounted for execution risk.”
Source: Construction Dive — Judge halts Google data center project in Minnesota (May 2026) (www.constructiondive.com)
Sub-factor scores and sources
Every base-scored input below carries E1–E2 evidence: a justification, an evidence-level grade, and a link to the underlying source document.
Power Availability & Deliverability — 5.5/10 (weight 20%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grid headroom 40% of dimension | 5.5 /10 | Minnesota is an emerging market with only 13 operating data centers totalling ~43 MW today, but ~1,120 MW of publicly-disclosed planned capacity across 12 projects as of Jan 2026 and Xcel Energy reporting >2 GW of contracted data-center capacity in queue (expecting to sign anothe... as of | Fresh Energy — What's up with data centers in Minnesota? / Utility Dive Xcel large-load tariff coverage (Jan 2026 / 2025) fresh-energy.org | |
| Time-to-power 35% of dimension | 5 /10 | Large-load energisation in Xcel/MISO runs a multi-year path: the MISO generator/transmission interconnection queue plus Xcel's new large-load process (Capacity*Connect 200 MW tranche proposed Oct 2025, large-load tariff approved by MN PUC 15 May 2026 with a 15-year minimum contra... as of | Fresh Energy — Commission approves Xcel Energy's large load tariff (15 May 2026) fresh-energy.org | |
| Energy mix & expandability 15% of dimension | 5.5 /10 | Minnesota's mix is ~33% renewable (wind-heavy) plus ~20% nuclear (Xcel's Monticello and Prairie Island), i.e. roughly 53% carbon-free, but HF7 (signed 7 Feb 2023) mandates 80% carbon-free by 2030, 90% by 2035 and 100% by 2040, constraining new gas and forcing expansion via wind,... as of | Conservation Minnesota / Fresh Energy — Minnesota's 100% clean electricity law (HF7) explained (2023) fresh-energy.org | |
| Water availability 10% of dimension | 7 /10 | Minnesota sits in a humid continental, low-baseline-water-stress region per WRI Aqueduct 4.0 (abundant groundwater and Great Lakes/Mississippi headwaters), and its cold climate enables extensive free-air/economizer cooling that sharply cuts water draw for DCs; water adequacy is a... as of | WRI Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas www.wri.org |
Power Cost — 6.6/10 (weight 12.5%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial electricity price 60% of dimension | 7 /10 | EIA Electric Power Monthly (Table 5.6.B, average retail price by state/sector) reports Minnesota's industrial-sector retail electricity price at ~9.0 c/kWh (≈$90/MWh) in early-2025 data, comfortably below the US industrial average and well inside the favourable end of the anchor... as of | EIA Electric Power Monthly — Table 5.6.B (industrial retail price by state) / EIA Minnesota State Electricity Profile (2024–2025) www.eia.gov | |
| Price trajectory & exposure 25% of dimension | 5.5 /10 | Xcel is a regulated monopoly whose rates are set in MN PUC general rate cases, and the utility has filed for interim rate increases while HF7 compliance (coal retirement by 2030, large clean-energy and transmission buildout for 100% carbon-free by 2035) plus surging DC load drive... as of | Citizens Utility Board MN — Xcel's Electric Rate Increase / EIA price outlook (2025–2026) cubminnesota.org | |
| Cost certainty / contractability 15% of dimension | 7 /10 | The MN PUC approved Xcel's large-load tariff on 15 May 2026, requiring a 15-year minimum contract, an 80% demand-charge obligation on early exit, and a separate large-customer/data-center rate class to allocate costs transparently; combined with the regulated tariff structure and... as of | Fresh Energy — Commission approves Xcel Energy's large load tariff (15 May 2026) fresh-energy.org |
Speed to Build — 6/10 (weight 17.5%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Permitting regime 40% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
| Observed construction velocity 35% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
| Labor & supply capacity 25% of dimension | 6 /10 | The Twin Cities metro has a deep, unionized construction trades base and proven EPC capacity (Mortenson, a major national DC builder, is headquartered in Minneapolis and is constructing the Meta Rosemount campus, with peak construction supporting ~1,000 skilled trades workers), g... as of | MN Governor's Office — Meta to Build New Data Center in Rosemount (Mortenson EPC) (2024–2025) mn.gov |
Regulatory & AI Policy Environment — 6.4/10 (weight 12.5%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI-specific law in force 35% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
| DC-specific regulation 35% of dimension | 4.5 /10 | DC-specific regulation is active and tightening: the MN PUC is running large-load proceedings (large-load tariff approved 15 May 2026), the 2025 legislature reformed the DC sales-tax program (adding a $250M large-scale tier and stripping the electricity exemption from 1 Jul 2025)... as of | Minnesota Reformer — Lawmakers extend tax breaks for Big Tech data centers / Fresh Energy large-load tariff (Jun 2025 / May 2026) minnesotareformer.com | |
| Regulatory predictability 30% of dimension | 8.5 /10 | The United States scores in the ~91st percentile for Regulatory Quality (90.57, 2023) on the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators, with comparably high Rule of Law, reflecting strong, rules-based institutions; Minnesota inherits this federal-level predictability and rule-of... as of | World Bank WGI (tradingeconomics mirror) — US Regulatory Quality percentile rank 90.57 (2023) tradingeconomics.com |
Fiscal & Incentives — 5/10 (weight 10%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enacted incentives 40% of dimension | 6 /10 | Minnesota's enacted Qualified Data Center sales-tax exemption (MN Dept of Revenue) covers IT equipment, servers, networking, cooling and software for facilities ≥25,000 sq ft meeting investment thresholds ($30M/48mo new, $50M/24mo refurbished, or $250M/60mo for the 2025 large-sca... as of | Minnesota Department of Revenue — Qualified Data Centers (2025) www.revenue.state.mn.us | |
| Headline tax burden 40% of dimension | 3.5 /10 | Minnesota imposes a flat 9.8% corporate income tax — the highest broad-based state corporate rate in the nation (applied from the first dollar) — stacked on top of the US federal 21% rate, and large multinationals face the OECD Pillar Two 15% global minimum tax; the combined burd... as of | Tax Foundation 2026 State Tax Competitiveness Index — Minnesota / NFIB (2025) taxfoundation.org | |
| Incentive durability 20% of dimension | 6 /10 | The program offers a long claim window (refunds for up to 20 years from the first qualifying purchase per the Dept of Revenue) but carries a hard statutory sunset of 30 Jun 2042, whichever is earlier, for first qualifying purchases, and the 2025 removal of the electricity exempti... as of | Minnesota Department of Revenue — Qualified Data Centers (2025) www.revenue.state.mn.us |
Capital & Ecosystem Depth — 3.3/10 (weight 12.5%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Committed capital 40% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
| Ecosystem 30% of dimension | 4.5 /10 | The Minnesota DC ecosystem is emerging rather than mature: only 13 operating data centers (~43 MW) today, but rapid hyperscaler entry (Google, Meta), growing Twin Cities + Rochester/Pine Island fiber and siting activity, and a national-tier EPC anchor (Mortenson) headquartered lo... as of | Fresh Energy — What's up with data centers in Minnesota? / Utility Dive Xcel large-load tariff coverage (Jan 2026 / 2025) fresh-energy.org | |
| Sovereign/anchor capital availability 30% of dimension | 2 /10 | As a US state, Minnesota has no sovereign-wealth or state-directed anchor capital deploying into data-center infrastructure; financing is wholly private (hyperscaler balance sheets, REITs, private equity), so this factor is honestly graded low, consistent with US sub-national jur... as of | DCD / Blackridge Research — Largest Data Center Projects in Minnesota (privately financed) (2025–2026) www.blackridgeresearch.com |
Stability & Execution Risk — 8.4/10 (weight 15%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political/policy continuity 40% of dimension | 8 /10 | The United States scores in the ~91st percentile for Regulatory Quality (90.57, 2023) on the World Bank WGI with strong Rule of Law and Government Effectiveness, and Minnesota is a stable, institutionally capable state with orderly governance; recent DC-policy shifts (tax reform,... as of | World Bank WGI (tradingeconomics mirror) — US Regulatory Quality percentile rank 90.57 (2023) tradingeconomics.com | |
| Currency, transfer & convertibility 35% of dimension | 9 /10 | Transactions are in fully convertible US dollars with no capital or profit-repatriation controls; the US sovereign carries Moody's Aa1 (downgraded one notch from Aaa on 16 May 2025, outlook stable) alongside S&P AA+ and Fitch AA+ — top-tier transfer and convertibility security, s... as of | Moody's downgrades US to Aa1 (May 16, 2025) ratings.moodys.com | |
| Physical & geopolitical risk 25% of dimension | 8 /10 | Minnesota carries negligible armed-conflict/geopolitical risk and low natural-catastrophe exposure (no hurricanes/major seismicity; tornado risk modest); the cold continental climate is a net positive (free-air cooling) with extreme-cold grid-stress and occasional MISO winter pea... as of | WRI Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas www.wri.org |
Signals
Recent ingested source documents linked to this jurisdiction via extracted claims or triage mentions, newest first.
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· Canary Media · relevance 0.00
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· Google News Business · relevance 0.85
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www.blackridgeresearch.com · relevance 0.50
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www.revenue.state.mn.us · relevance 0.70
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www.datacenterdynamics.com · relevance 0.90
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taxfoundation.org · relevance 0.00
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minnesotareformer.com · relevance 0.70
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www.joneswalker.com · relevance 0.65
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mn.gov · relevance 0.90
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www.constructiondive.com · relevance 0.85
Scores are reproducible from the frozen inputs snapshot recorded at computation time (2026-06-15T23:52:43+00:00). See the full methodology for rubrics, weights, and the evidence ladder.