Jurisdiction Index / US — Arizona (APS/SRP)
US — Arizona (APS/SRP)
JCI composite · as of · methodology v0
US — Arizona (APS/SRP) scores 67.2/100 on the Compute Institute Jurisdiction Competitiveness Index (Tier 2, Competitive), ranking #4 of 30 rated jurisdictions with a stable outlook, as of June 15, 2026 under methodology v0. Its strongest dimension is Fiscal & Incentives at 7.7/10; its weakest is Power Availability & Deliverability at 5.1/10. 20 of 22 sub-factors are scored on E1–E2 evidence (data confidence A). The stable outlook is driven by 2 forward-looking signals (-0.09 net points, E3–E4 evidence): AI-specific law in force (E3) and sovereign/anchor capital availability (E3).
Dimension breakdown
Seven dimensions, each 0–10, weighted per methodology v0. JCI = Σ(dimension × weight) × 10.
Power Availability & Deliverability
Power Cost
Speed to Build
Regulatory & AI Policy Environment
Fiscal & Incentives
Capital & Ecosystem Depth
Stability & Execution Risk
Outlook drivers — Stable (-0.09 net points)
Forward-looking E3–E4 signals. They move the outlook only — never the base score.
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AI-specific law in force +0.66 pts as of
“Arizona has no comprehensive AI statute in force; under a stable US federal framework this is permissive-but-predictable rather than uncertain, with no AI-specific restriction on compute/data-center deployment as of mid-2026.”
Source: Arizona State Legislature / ACC regulatory record (no AI compute statute as of 2026) (www.azleg.gov)
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Sovereign/anchor capital availability -0.75 pts as of
“As a US state, Arizona has no sovereign-wealth or government anchor-capital vehicle backing compute infrastructure; financing is private/hyperscaler-led with federal CHIPS support flowing to TSMC rather than to general DC capital, so sovereign anchoring is structurally low.”
Source: NIST CHIPS — TSMC Arizona (federal support to fabs, not DC anchor capital) (www.nist.gov)
Sub-factor scores and sources
Every base-scored input below carries E1–E2 evidence: a justification, an evidence-level grade, and a link to the underlying source document.
Power Availability & Deliverability — 5.1/10 (weight 20%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grid headroom 40% of dimension | 4.5 /10 | APS reports ~4.5 GW of committed large-load in queue plus ~20 GW further interest against an ~8.2 GW system peak (large-customer peak projected ~13.1 GW in 2026); SRP serves 59 large-load customers totaling ~7,000 MW — demand growth is outrunning near-term headroom, forcing new g... as of | ACC Large Load / Data Center Workshop Highlights (Apr 2026) and SRP Data Center Facts (2026) www.azcc.gov | |
| Time-to-power 35% of dimension | 6 /10 | Arizona's vertically-integrated utilities (APS/SRP) interconnect large loads faster than PJM, but surging ~30 GW of queued requests against an ~8.5 GW record system peak (July 2025) is pushing realistic energization timelines into the ~3-4 year range pending new generation and th... as of | Utility Dive — Arizona utilities sign up for gas pipeline project spurred by data center growth (2025) www.utilitydive.com | |
| Energy mix & expandability 15% of dimension | 6.5 /10 | Arizona hosts Palo Verde, the largest US nuclear plant (~3.9 GW), abundant utility-scale solar+storage buildout, and newly contracted natural gas pipeline capacity from the Energy Transfer/Transwestern project explicitly to power data-center load; behind-the-meter generation is f... as of | DataCenterDynamics — Arizona utilities acquire natural gas capacity for data center growth (2025) www.datacenterdynamics.com | |
| Water availability 10% of dimension | 2.5 /10 | Phoenix AMA sits in WRI Aqueduct high/extremely-high baseline water stress; the Colorado River entered a Tier 1 shortage for 2026 with mandatory Arizona cutbacks, and ADWR's 2023 model projected 4.86 million acre-feet of 100-year unmet groundwater demand — a binding, signature de... as of | ADWR Phoenix AMA Groundwater Supply Updates (2023 model, 4.86 MAF unmet) + Colorado River Tier 1 shortage 2026 www.azwater.gov |
Power Cost — 6.8/10 (weight 12.5%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial electricity price 60% of dimension | 7 /10 | EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 5.6.A reports Arizona industrial electricity at 7.17 c/kWh (~$71.7/MWh) for March 2026, well below the US average and comfortably between the $45/MWh top anchor and $140/MWh floor. as of | EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A www.eia.gov | |
| Price trajectory & exposure 25% of dimension | 6.5 /10 | Arizona is served by regulated vertically-integrated utilities (APS rate-regulated by the ACC; SRP a public power district), giving tariff stability; the ACC reported Arizona's average cost per kWh rose <2% in 2025 versus sharper national increases, though APS data-center rate ca... as of | ACC — Arizona's Average Cost per kWh Increases by Less Than 2% (Aug 2025) azcc.gov | |
| Cost certainty / contractability 15% of dimension | 6.5 /10 | Regulated tariffs plus APS's pending data-center-specific rate schedule and SRP large-load offerings provide contractable, long-horizon pricing; APS is updating dedicated large-load tariffs to allocate costs to data centers, increasing structured-contract certainty for new entran... as of | Daily Energy Insider — APS moves to update data center rates as demand surges (2025/2026) dailyenergyinsider.com |
Speed to Build — 6.9/10 (weight 17.5%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Permitting regime 40% of dimension | 6.5 /10 | Maricopa County in late 2025 adopted rules permitting data centers by-right within IND-2/IND-3 industrial zones (rezoning only for non-industrial land), and Arizona has minimal state-level environmental review — fast relative to coastal markets, though new county siting scrutiny... as of | AZBEX — Maricopa County Approves New Data Center Rules (2025) azbex.com | |
| Observed construction velocity 35% of dimension | 7 /10 | Metro Phoenix had ~1,300 MW of data-center capacity under construction with 4,154 MW planned as of Sep 2025 (ACC), evidencing among the fastest observed build-out velocity nationally; internal-DB project pipeline thin, graded honestly off market-stock evidence. as of | ACC — Action to Manage Data Center Growth, Metro Phoenix #2 (~1.3 GW under construction, 4,154 MW planned, Sep 2025) www.azcc.gov | |
| Labor & supply capacity 25% of dimension | 7.5 /10 | The ~$165B TSMC Phoenix cluster (three fabs, two packaging plants, R&D, volume production since late 2024) has built deep EPC, electrical, and construction-trades capacity in metro Phoenix, supporting strong concurrent data-center construction labor supply. as of | TSMC Press Release — Expands US investment to $165B (Mar 2025) pr.tsmc.com |
Regulatory & AI Policy Environment — 6.4/10 (weight 12.5%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI-specific law in force 35% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
| DC-specific regulation 35% of dimension | 5 /10 | The ACC and Maricopa County have moved in 2025-2026 to manage data-center growth via utility large-load tariffs and new county siting rules, and ADWR water-supply constraints (post-2023 unmet-demand rule, partly invalidated by a 2026 court ruling) create real water-related siting... as of | ACC — Action to Manage Data Center Growth, Metro Phoenix #2 (~1.3 GW under construction, 4,154 MW planned, Sep 2025) www.azcc.gov | |
| Regulatory predictability 30% of dimension | 8 /10 | World Bank WGI rates US Regulatory Quality at 1.35 (2024, ~-2.5 to +2.5 scale, roughly 89th percentile) with strong Rule of Law, anchoring high institutional predictability for Arizona's regulated-utility regime. as of | World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators — US Regulatory Quality 1.35 (2024) www.theglobaleconomy.com |
Fiscal & Incentives — 7.7/10 (weight 10%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enacted incentives 40% of dimension | 8 /10 | The Arizona Computer Data Center program (A.R.S. § 41-1519, enacted 2013) grants transaction-privilege/use-tax exemption on qualifying data-center equipment for 10 years (up to 20 for sustainable/large projects), a substantial enacted statutory incentive certified by the Arizona... as of | Arizona Commerce Authority — Computer Data Center Program / A.R.S. § 41-1519 www.azcommerce.com | |
| Headline tax burden 40% of dimension | 7.5 /10 | US federal corporate rate is 21% atop Arizona's flat 4.9% corporate income tax (among the lowest US state rates), a competitive combined burden; OECD Pillar Two 15% global minimum applies to large MNE groups but rarely binds at this combined statutory level. as of | Arizona Department of Revenue — Corporate Income Tax Highlights (4.9% rate, 2025) azdor.gov | |
| Incentive durability 20% of dimension | 7.5 /10 | A.R.S. § 41-1519 authorizes new certifications through December 31, 2033, with per-facility tax benefits running 10-20 years, giving strong medium-term durability though subject to the 2033 program sunset absent renewal. as of | A.R.S. § 41-1519 (2025) — certification window through Dec 31, 2033 law.justia.com |
Capital & Ecosystem Depth — 7.3/10 (weight 12.5%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Committed capital 40% of dimension | 7.5 /10 | Phoenix's ~807 MW operational and ~4.1 GW planned data-center pipeline (with ~1.3 GW already under construction) reflects multi-billion-dollar committed hyperscale capital, adjacent to TSMC's ~$165B fab program; internal-DB financed-deal records thin, graded honestly off market e... as of | ACC — Action to Manage Data Center Growth, Metro Phoenix #2 (~1.3 GW under construction, 4,154 MW planned, Sep 2025) www.azcc.gov | |
| Ecosystem 30% of dimension | 7 /10 | Phoenix is the #5 US operational data-center market (~807 MW, CBRE H2 2025) but #2 by planned development (~4.1 GW pipeline), with dense fiber, all major hyperscalers present, robust unrestricted US GPU/export status, and the TSMC semiconductor cluster — a top-tier, fast-rising e... as of | CBRE H2 2025 — US operational rankings (Phoenix #5, 807.3 MW); Northern Virginia largest market www.cbre.com | |
| Sovereign/anchor capital availability 30% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
Stability & Execution Risk — 7.7/10 (weight 15%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political/policy continuity 40% of dimension | 6.5 /10 | World Bank WGI rates US Political Stability at -0.10 (2024, ~45th percentile — depressed by polarization) but Government Effectiveness remains high; Arizona itself maintains stable regulated-utility governance and bipartisan support for the data-center tax program. as of | World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators — US Political Stability -0.10 (2024) www.theglobaleconomy.com | |
| Currency, transfer & convertibility 35% of dimension | 9.5 /10 | Arizona transacts in fully convertible USD with no capital controls and unrestricted profit repatriation; the US dollar is the world's primary reserve currency, giving near-maximal transfer/convertibility certainty. as of | World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators — US Regulatory Quality 1.35 (2024) www.theglobaleconomy.com | |
| Physical & geopolitical risk 25% of dimension | 7 /10 | Geopolitical/conflict risk is minimal in Arizona, but physical climate risk is materially elevated — extreme heat (Phoenix routinely >115°F) raises cooling load and water draw, and Colorado River shortage compounds resource risk; graded down honestly from a near-10 geopolitical b... as of | KUNC / ADWR — Colorado River shortage and extreme-heat physical risk (2025-2026) www.kunc.org |
Signals
Recent ingested source documents linked to this jurisdiction via extracted claims or triage mentions, newest first.
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· Utility Dive · relevance 0.00
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· pv magazine USA · relevance 0.65
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· Bloomberg Markets · relevance 0.70
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· ChinaTalk · relevance 0.20
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· Reuters · relevance 0.30
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· Interesting Engineering · relevance 0.50
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· Google News Business · relevance 0.00
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www.nist.gov · relevance 0.20
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law.justia.com · relevance 0.70
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www.azcommerce.com · relevance 0.65
Scores are reproducible from the frozen inputs snapshot recorded at computation time (2026-06-15T23:52:43+00:00). See the full methodology for rubrics, weights, and the evidence ladder.