Compute Institute
Ratings for the physical buildout of AI

Jurisdiction Index / Netherlands

Netherlands

Tier 3 · Contested
Negative
Rank #29 of 30
Data confidence A
50.3 /100

JCI composite · as of · methodology v0

Netherlands scores 50.3/100 on the Compute Institute Jurisdiction Competitiveness Index (Tier 3, Contested), ranking #29 of 30 rated jurisdictions with a negative outlook, as of June 15, 2026 under methodology v0. Its strongest dimension is Capital & Ecosystem Depth at 8.5/10; its weakest is Power Availability & Deliverability at 2.8/10. 19 of 22 sub-factors are scored on E1–E2 evidence (data confidence A). The negative outlook is driven by 3 forward-looking signals (-1.11 net points, E3–E4 evidence): observed construction velocity (E3), committed capital (E3) and sovereign/anchor capital availability (E3).

Dimension breakdown

Seven dimensions, each 0–10, weighted per methodology v0. JCI = Σ(dimension × weight) × 10.

Power Availability & Deliverability

2.8 /10 weight 20%

Power Cost

3.2 /10 weight 12.5%

Speed to Build

3.7 /10 weight 17.5%

Regulatory & AI Policy Environment

5.2 /10 weight 12.5%

Fiscal & Incentives

4.7 /10 weight 10%

Capital & Ecosystem Depth

8.5 /10 weight 12.5%

Stability & Execution Risk

8.3 /10 weight 15%

Outlook drivers — Negative (-1.11 net points)

Forward-looking E3–E4 signals. They move the outlook only — never the base score.

  • Observed construction velocity
    E3
    -0.61 pts as of
    “Thin internal-DB evidence; established hyperscale clusters exist (Microsoft/Google at Agriport A7, Hollands Kroon and Wieringermeer) demonstrating prior delivery capability, but new large-build velocity is constrained by grid and permitting. Graded honestly on limited primary throughput data.”

    Source: w.media, 'Microsoft's upcoming data center in Amsterdam' (power/land use) (w.media)

  • Committed capital
    E3
    -0.50 pts as of
    “Constrained pipeline: AI-infra capital is suppressed by the hyperscale moratorium and grid queues, concentrating new financed MW in exempted clusters (Hollands Kroon/Agriport); internal-DB-fed signed-financing figures thin, graded honestly on filings vs announcements.”

    Source: DataCenterDynamics, 'Dutch government halts hyperscale data centers, pending new rules' (www.datacenterdynamics.com)

  • Sovereign/anchor capital availability
    E3
    +0.00 pts as of
    “Invest-NL (the EUR 2.5bn+ national promotional institution) and EU/InvestEU facilities provide some anchor capital, but there is no dedicated sovereign DC/AI-infra vehicle; graded honestly as limited and not DC-targeted.”

    Source: DLA Piper, 'Data centers in the Netherlands: a shifting landscape' (www.dlapiper.com)

Sub-factor scores and sources

Every base-scored input below carries E1–E2 evidence: a justification, an evidence-level grade, and a link to the underlying source document.

Power Availability & Deliverability — 2.8/10 (weight 20%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
Grid headroom 40% of dimension 2 /10 Severe netcongestie: TenneT's offtake waiting list holds 212 requests totaling 38 GW against current peak demand of ~19 GW (rising to ~27 GW by 2030); high-voltage grid in large parts of Zuid-Holland and Noord-Holland declared at maximum capacity for large consumers (>3x80A), wit... as of
E2
Stibbe, 'Parliamentary letter on grid congestion: eight measures' (2025) www.stibbe.com
Time-to-power 35% of dimension 1 /10 TenneT states there will be no extra grid space for large electricity consumers (companies, data centres) in much of Noord-Holland for at least the next 10 years; grid operators warn of connection wait times up to 10 years, far beyond the >6yr/moratorium anchor (=0-1). as of
E2
TenneT news, 'No extra space on electricity grid in large part of Noord-Holland next decade' (2025) www.tennet.eu
Energy mix & expandability 15% of dimension 5.5 /10 Strong renewable buildout potential (4.7 GW offshore wind operational, 21 GW 2030 target) but expansion is grid-bottlenecked, not generation-bottlenecked; TenneT's queue holds ~60 GW of battery storage vs ~20 GW peak load, and gas phase-down adds firming risk. as of
E2
NedZero 'Facts about offshore wind' / ESS-News Dutch grid (2025) nedzero.nl
Water availability 10% of dimension 8.5 /10 Low water stress: as a North Sea delta the Netherlands sits well below the 25% SDG 6.4.2 stress threshold (Europe regional average ~12.3% per FAO AQUASTAT 2022), with abundant surface water for cooling; localized water quality, not quantity, is the operative concern. as of
E2
World Bank, Level of water stress (ER.H2O.FWST.ZS), Netherlands, 1980-2022 data.worldbank.org

Power Cost — 3.2/10 (weight 12.5%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
Industrial electricity price 60% of dimension 2 /10 High by absolute anchor: Dutch non-household electricity averaged 20.46 c/kWh (~EUR 205/MWh, ~$220/MWh) in H1 2025 for the 500-2,000 MWh band; even very-large consumers face well above the $140/MWh '0' anchor before grid-fee relief, among the EU's costlier markets. as of
E2
Eurostat NRG_PC_205 via Statista, NL non-household electricity H1 2025 www.statista.com
Price trajectory & exposure 25% of dimension 4 /10 Elevated forward exposure: high EU ETS carbon pricing plus gas-set marginal pricing and rising grid tariffs; TenneT introduced off-peak tariff cuts up to 65% (Apr 2025) to manage congestion, signaling structurally high and volatile network costs. as of
E2
Stibbe, 'Parliamentary letter on grid congestion: eight measures' (2025) www.stibbe.com
Cost certainty / contractability 15% of dimension 6.5 /10 Deep corporate PPA market anchored on North Sea offshore wind (Google, Shell/Eneco and others have signed Dutch offshore-wind PPAs/concessions, e.g. the 760 MW Hollandse Kust West concession), providing strong long-term price-hedging despite high spot prices. as of
E2
S&P Global Commodity Insights, 'Shell, Eneco awarded 760 MW Dutch offshore wind concession' (Dec 2022) www.spglobal.com

Speed to Build — 3.7/10 (weight 17.5%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
Permitting regime 40% of dimension 2.5 /10 Nitrogen (stikstof) permitting crisis: after the 2019 Council of State PAS ruling, the construction exemption was annulled on 2 Nov 2022, and Dec 2024 rulings require permits even for internal offsetting, leaving many construction/nature permits frozen or multi-year, well past th... as of
E2
NautaDutilh, 'The construction exemption annulled: next steps' (2022-2024) www.nautadutilh.com
Observed construction velocity 35% of dimension Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score.
Labor & supply capacity 25% of dimension 5.5 /10 EU single-market EPC depth, but acute labor scarcity: over 80% of Dutch construction businesses reported staff shortages and more than 32% were limiting production to available workforce (CBS Business Survey, April 2025) — the worst of any Dutch sector, tightening high-voltage an... as of
E1
CBS, 'Two-thirds of businesses are struggling with staff shortages' (May 2025) www.cbs.nl

Regulatory & AI Policy Environment — 5.2/10 (weight 12.5%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
AI-specific law in force 35% of dimension 5 /10 EU AI Act in force since 1 Aug 2024 (directly applicable in NL); prohibited-practices banned from 2 Feb 2025 and GPAI obligations live 2 Aug 2025, with high-risk Annex III duties phasing 2026-2028 — an enacted, underwriteable but moderately restrictive horizontal regime. as of
E1
European Commission, AI Act regulatory framework (in force 2024-08-01) digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu
DC-specific regulation 35% of dimension 2.5 /10 Genuinely restrictive DC-specific regime: Feb 2022 nationwide moratorium on hyperscale sites (>10 ha / >70 MW), then a June 2022 policy barring municipalities from zoning hyperscale DCs except limited exempted areas (Hollands Kroon/Agriport, Het Hogeland), plus Amsterdam/Haarlemm... as of
E2
CMS Law-Now, 'Netherlands prohibits creating hyperscale data centres until national guidelines passed' (Nov 2022) cms-lawnow.com
Regulatory predictability 30% of dimension 8.5 /10 Very high institutional quality: World Bank WGI Regulatory Quality estimate 1.72 (2024) and Rule of Law ~1.79 (2023) on a -2.5/+2.5 scale (world avg ~0), placing NL in roughly the 93rd-95th global percentile; deep independent regulators (ACM) and courts. as of
E1
World Bank WGI via TheGlobalEconomy, NL Regulatory Quality 2024 www.theglobaleconomy.com

Fiscal & Incentives — 4.7/10 (weight 10%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
Enacted incentives 40% of dimension 3.5 /10 No material DC-specific tax incentives; the innovation box (effective 9% on qualifying IP income) targets R&D/IP, not data-centre capex, and Pillar Two further blunts incentive value for in-scope hyperscalers. Graded honestly as thin for DC. as of
E2
EY, 'Netherlands budget proposals; key legislative developments for 2025' www.ey.com
Headline tax burden 40% of dimension 5 /10 Headline CIT 25.8% on profits above EUR 200,000 (19% below) for 2025 — mid-to-high among DC hubs; Pillar Two minimum-tax act in force since 1 Jan 2024 limits incentive-based rate reduction for large (>EUR 750m) groups. as of
E1
PwC Tax Summaries, Netherlands Corporate Taxes on Income (2025) taxsummaries.pwc.com
Incentive durability 20% of dimension 6.5 /10 What incentives exist (innovation box, R&D WBSO) are statutorily stable and administered by a high-quality tax authority, but the overall stance toward large DCs is restrictive rather than incentive-led, capping durability upside for the asset class. as of
E2
Norton Rose Fulbright, 'The 2026 Dutch tax plan' www.nortonrosefulbright.com

Capital & Ecosystem Depth — 8.5/10 (weight 12.5%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
Committed capital 40% of dimension Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score.
Ecosystem 30% of dimension 8.5 /10 World-class digital ecosystem: AMS-IX is one of the largest internet exchanges globally (63.76 Tb/s capacity, 14 Tb/s peak, 1,227 connected parties across 70 countries in 2024), with dense subsea fiber landings, large installed DC stock and full hyperscaler presence — the constra... as of
E1
AMS-IX Annual Report 2024 / Facts & Figures www.ams-ix.net
Sovereign/anchor capital availability 30% of dimension Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score.

Stability & Execution Risk — 8.3/10 (weight 15%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
Political/policy continuity 40% of dimension 7.5 /10 Very high government effectiveness (WGI 1.75, 2024) and strong rule of law, though the Schoof coalition collapsed in June 2025 with snap elections on 29 Oct 2025 introducing near-term policy uncertainty (notably on nitrogen/migration); structural institutional continuity remains... as of
E1
World Bank WGI via TheGlobalEconomy, NL Government Effectiveness 2024 www.theglobaleconomy.com
Currency, transfer & convertibility 35% of dimension 9.5 /10 Euro member with no capital or transfer controls; the Kingdom of the Netherlands holds AAA/Stable from S&P, Fitch, Moody's, Scope and Morningstar DBRS (DBRS reaffirmed AAA Stable Feb 2025), giving best-in-class convertibility and transfer certainty. as of
E1
Morningstar DBRS, 'Confirms Kingdom of the Netherlands at AAA Stable' (Feb 2025) dbrs.morningstar.com
Physical & geopolitical risk 25% of dimension 8 /10 Low physical/geopolitical risk: stable EU/NATO member with high WGI Political Stability; principal exposure is North Sea subsea-cable/pipeline security, an actively monitored but managed risk rather than an operational threat to AMS-region facilities. as of
E2
Scope Ratings, 'Scope affirms the Netherlands' credit ratings at AAA' scoperatings.com

Signals

Recent ingested source documents linked to this jurisdiction via extracted claims or triage mentions, newest first.

  1. scoperatings.com · relevance 0.00

  2. dbrs.morningstar.com · relevance 0.00

  3. cms-lawnow.com · relevance 0.70

  4. www.theglobaleconomy.com · relevance 0.00

  5. www.ams-ix.net · relevance 0.10

  6. www.dlapiper.com · relevance 0.50

  7. www.datacenterdynamics.com · relevance 0.75

  8. www.nortonrosefulbright.com · relevance 0.00

  9. www.ey.com · relevance 0.00

  10. taxsummaries.pwc.com · relevance 0.00

Scores are reproducible from the frozen inputs snapshot recorded at computation time (2026-06-15T23:52:40+00:00). See the full methodology for rubrics, weights, and the evidence ladder.