Jurisdiction Index / Brazil
Brazil
JCI composite · as of · methodology v0
Brazil scores 50.9/100 on the Compute Institute Jurisdiction Competitiveness Index (Tier 3, Contested), ranking #26 of 30 rated jurisdictions with a positive outlook, as of June 15, 2026 under methodology v0. Its strongest dimension is Capital & Ecosystem Depth at 6.4/10; its weakest is Power Cost at 2.7/10. 17 of 22 sub-factors are scored on E1–E2 evidence (data confidence B). The positive outlook is driven by 5 forward-looking signals (+1.80 net points, E3–E4 evidence): time-to-power (E3), cost certainty / contractability (E3), observed construction velocity (E3), labor & supply capacity (E3) and physical & geopolitical risk (E3).
Dimension breakdown
Seven dimensions, each 0–10, weighted per methodology v0. JCI = Σ(dimension × weight) × 10.
Power Availability & Deliverability
Power Cost
Speed to Build
Regulatory & AI Policy Environment
Fiscal & Incentives
Capital & Ecosystem Depth
Stability & Execution Risk
Outlook drivers — Positive (+1.80 net points)
Forward-looking E3–E4 signals. They move the outlook only — never the base score.
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Time-to-power -0.35 pts as of
“Brazil has generation surplus and new grid-connection-guarantee rules to deter speculative reservations, but transmission build-out lags and the 26.3 GW of pending DC connection requests to the National Grid by 2038 implies multi-year waits for large new loads at constrained nodes — placing time-to-power near the 3-4 year (5) anchor, better at sites adjacent to strong high-voltage infrastructure.”
Source: Intelligent CIO LATAM, Brazil curtailment / DC grid-planning (Apr 2026) (www.intelligentcio.com)
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Cost certainty / contractability +0.47 pts as of
“Brazil has one of the world's deepest free-contracting markets (ACL): long-term free-market prices rose only ~44% (R$102/MWh in 2010 to R$147/MWh, ~$27/MWh wholesale) — 64% below inflation and far under the regulated ~R$310/MWh — per Abraceel data, with full ACL opening to all low-voltage consumers from Aug 2026, giving large loads strong long-term price-certainty.”
Source: Rio Times / Canal Solar (Abraceel ACL price data, 2025) (www.riotimesonline.com)
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Observed construction velocity +0.31 pts as of
“Thin internal-DB evidence; São Paulo is delivering at scale — Scala's Tamboré campus is LATAM's largest (master plan up to 600 MW, Phase 2 inaugurated 2025) and Ascenty committed $1.2bn for a record 150 MW deployment — indicating active, demonstrated build velocity, graded conservatively pending observed completion timestamps.”
Source: Scala Tamboré master-plan / Ascenty 150 MW (PRNewswire, DCD 2025) (www.datacenterdynamics.com)
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Labor & supply capacity +0.44 pts as of
“São Paulo hosts a large established EPC, electrical and construction base supporting hundreds of MW of concurrent DC builds across Scala, Ascenty, Equinix and ODATA, but high equipment-import duties (pre-REDATA) and EM cost pressures temper capacity versus mature OECD markets.”
Source: Latin America Data Center Colocation Databook 2026 (Yahoo Finance) (finance.yahoo.com)
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Physical & geopolitical risk +0.94 pts as of
“Brazil faces low direct physical/geopolitical risk — no active interstate conflict, distant from major war theatres, and a stable regional posture — with principal residual exposure being domestic crime/security and episodic climate events (drought/floods) rather than geopolitical conflict; graded honestly as favorable.”
Source: Eurasia Group Top Risks - Implications for Brazil (contextual) (www.eurasiagroup.net)
Sub-factor scores and sources
Every base-scored input below carries E1–E2 evidence: a justification, an evidence-level grade, and a link to the underlying source document.
Power Availability & Deliverability — 6.3/10 (weight 20%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grid headroom 40% of dimension | 6 /10 | Data-centre grid-connection requests total 26.3 GW by 2038 (part of 54.2 GW with hydrogen) per EPE's PDE 2035, but EPE judges only ~16 GW technically/economically viable given infrastructure and speculative-reservation filters; against an 85%+ renewable, ~210+ GW installed base t... as of | EPE PDE 2035 via Click Oil & Gas (26.3 GW queue) / EPE ~16 GW viable (Dec 2025) en.clickpetroleoegas.com.br | |
| Time-to-power 35% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
| Energy mix & expandability 15% of dimension | 8 /10 | Brazil generated 88.2% of its 762.9 TWh electricity from renewables in 2024 (EPE/MME BEN 2025): hydro-dominant with wind+solar at 23.7% of generation, solar up 39.6% and wind up 12.4% YoY; deep distributed-generation legality and a vast renewable pipeline make supply expandabilit... as of | EPE/MME National Energy Balance (BEN) 2025, reference year 2024 www.epe.gov.br | |
| Water availability 10% of dimension | 5 /10 | WRI Aqueduct rates São Paulo at low-to-medium baseline water stress in a typical year, but the anchor metro suffered the acute 2014-2015 Cantareira crisis (reservoirs hit ~5% of 1.3 billion m3 capacity by Jan 2015 serving ~14M people), so siting near São Paulo carries real episod... as of | World Resources Institute, São Paulo water crisis & Aqueduct analysis www.wri.org |
Power Cost — 2.7/10 (weight 12.5%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial electricity price 60% of dimension | 2 /10 | All-in business electricity in Brazil was USD 0.157/kWh (BRL 0.789/kWh, incl. distribution, transmission and all taxes/sectoral charges) in Sep 2025 per GlobalPetrolPrices = ~$157/MWh, beyond the >$140/MWh worst anchor (0); generation itself is cheap but heavy CDE/sectoral charge... as of | GlobalPetrolPrices.com, Brazil electricity prices (Sep 2025) www.globalpetrolprices.com | |
| Price trajectory & exposure 25% of dimension | 4.5 /10 | Costs are hydrology-driven (thermal dispatch and bandeira surcharges spike in dry years) and regulated bills have risen ~177% over 15 years (45% above inflation) per Canal Solar; Law 15.269/2025 caps CDE spending but adds a Resource Complement Charge (ECR) triggered at 50% in 202... as of | Canal Solar (177% bill rise) / Cescon Barrieu on Law 15.269-2025 ECR (2025) cesconbarrieu.com.br | |
| Cost certainty / contractability 15% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
Speed to Build — 5/10 (weight 17.5%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Permitting regime 40% of dimension | 5 /10 | Brazilian environmental licensing runs ~2-12 months depending on regular vs simplified track and required study, with state agencies holding general jurisdiction over DC-scale facilities (IBAMA only for high-impact federal cases); workable mid-tier timelines but multi-permit comp... as of | Chambers Environmental Law 2025 - Brazil / ICLG licensing guides practiceguides.chambers.com | |
| Observed construction velocity 35% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
| Labor & supply capacity 25% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
Regulatory & AI Policy Environment — 5.6/10 (weight 12.5%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI-specific law in force 35% of dimension | 6 /10 | Brazil's comprehensive AI bill PL 2338/2023 (risk-based framework) passed the Senate on 10 Dec 2024 and has been under Chamber of Deputies review since 17 Mar 2025 but is NOT yet enacted — leaving a permissive-but-uncertain regime: no binding AI-specific obligations in force toda... as of | Data Privacy Brasil / Montreal AI Ethics, PL 2338 legislative status (2025) montrealethics.ai | |
| DC-specific regulation 35% of dimension | 6.5 /10 | REDATA (Provisional Measure 1.318/2025, published 18 Sep 2025) creates a dedicated DC tax regime but with localization conditions: beneficiaries must invest 2% of equipment value in R&D, allocate >=10% of processing capacity to the domestic market and meet clean-energy/water sust... as of | Martinelli Advogados, REDATA / MP 1.318-2025 (Sep 2025) www.martinelli.adv.br | |
| Regulatory predictability 30% of dimension | 4 /10 | World Bank WGI place Brazil mid-low: Regulatory Quality at a negative index (~-0.3, below the world average) and Government Effectiveness ~32nd percentile, reflecting frequent rule changes (e.g. CDE/sectoral-charge reallocations) and moderate but not high predictability for long-... as of | World Bank WGI via TheGlobalEconomy, Brazil Regulatory Quality (2024 update) www.theglobaleconomy.com |
Fiscal & Incentives — 4.5/10 (weight 10%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enacted incentives 40% of dimension | 6.5 /10 | REDATA (MP 1.318/2025) enacts a 5-year suspension of federal Import Tax, PIS/Cofins, PIS/Cofins-Importation and IPI on DC electronic components and IT equipment, part of a stated R$2 trillion (~US$370bn) decade-long DC investment push — a substantial, recently-enacted DC-targeted... as of | BDO / UNCTAD Investment Policy Monitor, Brazil DC tax incentives REDATA (2025) investmentpolicy.unctad.org | |
| Headline tax burden 40% of dimension | 2.5 /10 | Brazil's combined corporate burden is ~34% (IRPJ 25% = 15% base + 10% surtax above BRL 240k, plus CSLL 9%), among the higher rates globally, and a Pillar Two domestic top-up (Law 15.079/2024) applies a 15% minimum effective rate from 1 Jan 2025 — a heavy, complex burden that scor... as of | PwC Worldwide Tax Summaries, Brazil Corporate income taxes (2025) taxsummaries.pwc.com | |
| Incentive durability 20% of dimension | 4.5 /10 | REDATA was created by Provisional Measure (MP 1.318/2025), which must be converted into law by Congress to remain durable; conversion is now at risk (PLP 74/2026 filed re: the MP's expiration, with benefits running only to 31 Dec 2026), and Brazil's record of fiscal-charge reform... as of | Baker McKenzie InsightPlus, Brazil ReData MP conversion mechanics (2025) insightplus.bakermckenzie.com |
Capital & Ecosystem Depth — 6.4/10 (weight 12.5%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Committed capital 40% of dimension | 6.5 /10 | Large signed/financed AI-infra commitments in São Paulo: Scala's Tamboré (LATAM's largest, up to 600 MW, 560 MW substation), Ascenty's $1.2bn / 150 MW deployment and ODATA's record $1.02bn green financing for LatAm; graded honestly from announced/financed commitments rather than... as of | DCD / AOL ODATA $1.02bn green financing & Ascenty $1.2bn (2025) www.aol.com | |
| Ecosystem 30% of dimension | 7.5 /10 | São Paulo is the #1 LATAM DC hub — ~67% of the top-4-country LATAM inventory (CBRE Q1 2024 LATAM base ~650.2 MW), home to Scala/Ascenty/Equinix/ODATA (~55-62% of national colo+wholesale revenue), multiple subsea-cable landings and hyperscaler presence — top-tier regionally though... as of | CBRE Global Data Center Trends 2024 (São Paulo 67% of LATAM top-4) www.cbre.com | |
| Sovereign/anchor capital availability 30% of dimension | 5 /10 | Brazil's BNDES launched a dedicated DC credit line (BRL 2bn, Sep 2024) plus a ~US$367m line, with MCTI's BRL 500m green-DC financing and a BNDES AI/data-centre investment fund slated for 2026 within a US$4bn national AI Plan — meaningful sovereign anchor capital but modest in sca... as of | IBA / Idcnova, BNDES DC credit line & 2026 AI fund (2024-2025) www.ibanet.org |
Stability & Execution Risk — 4.5/10 (weight 15%)
|
Sub-factor
|
Score
|
Justification
|
Evidence
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political/policy continuity 40% of dimension | 4.5 /10 | World Bank WGI place Brazil at ~28th percentile for Political Stability (index ~-0.52, below world average) and ~32nd for Government Effectiveness, reflecting orderly but polarized democratic transitions and a record of policy reversals (energy charges, tax) — moderate continuity... as of | World Bank WGI via TheGlobalEconomy/Trading Economics, Brazil (2024 update) www.theglobaleconomy.com | |
| Currency, transfer & convertibility 35% of dimension | 4.5 /10 | BRL floats freely (~5.38/USD Oct 2025) under a modernized FX framework (Law 14.286) without major capital controls, but Brazil sits two notches below investment grade (S&P 'BB' Stable affirmed Jun 2025; Moody's Ba1 positive; Fitch BB) with a 15% Selic and ~4.4-4.8% inflation — hi... as of | S&P Global Ratings Brazil 'BB/B' affirmed (Jun 2025) & Banco Central FX www.spglobal.com | |
| Physical & geopolitical risk 25% of dimension | — | Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score. | — | — |
Signals
Recent ingested source documents linked to this jurisdiction via extracted claims or triage mentions, newest first.
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· thenextweb.com · relevance 0.80
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· Reuters · relevance 0.80
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www.eurasiagroup.net · relevance 0.00
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www.spglobal.com · relevance 0.00
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www.theglobaleconomy.com · relevance 0.00
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taxsummaries.pwc.com · relevance 0.00
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www.theglobaleconomy.com · relevance 0.00
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investmentpolicy.unctad.org · relevance 0.70
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insightplus.bakermckenzie.com · relevance 0.20
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www.aol.com · relevance 0.70
Scores are reproducible from the frozen inputs snapshot recorded at computation time (2026-06-15T23:52:36+00:00). See the full methodology for rubrics, weights, and the evidence ladder.