Compute Institute
Ratings for the physical buildout of AI

Jurisdiction Index / Australia

Australia

Tier 2 · Competitive
Negative
Rank #12 of 30
Data confidence A
61.9 /100

JCI composite · as of · methodology v0

Australia scores 61.9/100 on the Compute Institute Jurisdiction Competitiveness Index (Tier 2, Competitive), ranking #12 of 30 rated jurisdictions with a negative outlook, as of June 15, 2026 under methodology v0. Its strongest dimension is Stability & Execution Risk at 8.6/10; its weakest is Fiscal & Incentives at 4.7/10. 20 of 22 sub-factors are scored on E1–E2 evidence (data confidence A). The negative outlook is driven by 2 forward-looking signals (-0.60 net points, E3–E4 evidence): observed construction velocity (E3) and enacted incentives (E3).

Dimension breakdown

Seven dimensions, each 0–10, weighted per methodology v0. JCI = Σ(dimension × weight) × 10.

Power Availability & Deliverability

5.9 /10 weight 20%

Power Cost

4.9 /10 weight 12.5%

Speed to Build

4.8 /10 weight 17.5%

Regulatory & AI Policy Environment

6.9 /10 weight 12.5%

Fiscal & Incentives

4.7 /10 weight 10%

Capital & Ecosystem Depth

7.6 /10 weight 12.5%

Stability & Execution Risk

8.6 /10 weight 15%

Outlook drivers — Negative (-0.60 net points)

Forward-looking E3–E4 signals. They move the outlook only — never the base score.

  • Observed construction velocity
    E3
    +0.00 pts as of
    “Thin internal-DB signal: ~162 operational DCs nationally (~1.5 GW operational fleet per Dept of Industry) with multiple hyperscale SSDs approved late-2025 (Marsden Park, DigiCo SYD1, NEXTDC S4) indicate active build velocity, but project-level energisation cadence is not yet captured in the internal database — graded mid-scale and honestly as provisional.”

    Source: Certified Strategic Australia Data Centre Index (citing AEMO/Dept of Industry, Jun 2026) (certifiedstrategic.com)

  • Enacted incentives
    E3
    -0.60 pts as of
    “Australia offers no broad DC-specific tax abatement regime comparable to US state programs; incentives are largely indirect (R&D Tax Incentive, state investment-attraction deals and the Capacity Investment Scheme supporting renewable supply rather than DCs directly), so enacted DC-targeted fiscal support is thin — graded honestly low.”

    Source: Ashurst, Australia's Evolving Data Centre Landscape: Policy meets Pipeline (2025) (www.ashurst.com)

Sub-factor scores and sources

Every base-scored input below carries E1–E2 evidence: a justification, an evidence-level grade, and a link to the underlying source document.

Power Availability & Deliverability — 5.9/10 (weight 20%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
Grid headroom 40% of dimension 5 /10 AEMO received ~44 GW of data-centre connection requests in the 2025 IASR but estimates ~6 in every 7 MW is 'phantom demand', with only ~6 GW genuinely required under the Step Change scenario; as of the Mar-2026 quarter only 11 large-load projects totalling 5.4 GW (≈60% NSW, ≈40%... as of
E1
AEMO Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q1 2026 / 2024 Integrated System Plan (Jun 2026 / 2024) www.aemo.com.au
Time-to-power 35% of dimension 6.5 /10 AEMO's connections onboarding lead describes an approximate two-year timeframe from application to energisation for large-load transmission connections (varying with project readiness and system conditions), placing AU well inside the 3–4yr (=5) anchor and approaching the <18mo t... as of
E1
AEMO Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q1 2026 disclosure (2 Jun 2026) www.aemo.com.au
Energy mix & expandability 15% of dimension 6.5 /10 Renewables supplied ~40% of NEM electricity in 2024, with the 2024 ISP charting a path to 82% by 2030 via renewables firmed by storage and backed by gas as ~90% of the coal fleet retires before 2035; expandability is strong on the supply pipeline but gated by transmission deliver... as of
E1
AEMO 2024 Integrated System Plan (Jun 2024) www.aemo.com.au
Water availability 10% of dimension 6 /10 Australia is a dry continent rated medium-high baseline water stress overall by WRI Aqueduct 4.0, but the anchor DC metros differ: Sydney/NSW sits at lower stress while Melbourne and inland NSW siting regions face higher seasonal stress, and Sydney Water has flagged infrastructur... as of
E2
WRI Aqueduct 4.0 Country Rankings www.wri.org

Power Cost — 4.9/10 (weight 12.5%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
Industrial electricity price 60% of dimension 4 /10 NEM Q1-2026 wholesale prices averaged A$50/MWh (VIC) to A$144/MWh (SA) (≈US$33–95/MWh at ~0.66 AUD/USD), but delivered large-commercial energy rates run far higher: Shell Energy large-commercial flat rates from Apr-2025 were ~16.6 c/kWh (VIC) to ~23.5 c/kWh (NSW) before network c... as of
E1
AEMO Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q1 2026 / Shell Energy large-commercial default rates (2026 / Apr 2025) www.aer.gov.au
Price trajectory & exposure 25% of dimension 5.5 /10 Wholesale prices fell sharply (NEM Q4-2025 averaged A$50/MWh, down 44% YoY) as renewables displaced gas, but ~90% coal retirement before 2035 plus renewable-firming gaps drive episodic volatility (SA jumped to A$144/MWh in Q1-2026), leaving a mixed downward-but-volatile trajector... as of
E1
AEMO Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q4 2025 / Q1 2026 www.aemo.com.au
Cost certainty / contractability 15% of dimension 7.5 /10 Australia has one of APAC's deepest corporate renewable PPA markets: ~192 corporate PPAs contracting >10.7 GW since 2017, with ~3.4 GW negotiated in the record 2024 (Business Renewables Centre Australia State of the Market), giving hyperscalers a mature mechanism to lock long-ter... as of
E2
Business Renewables Centre Australia, State of the Market Report 2024 (Mar 2025) businessrenewables.org.au

Speed to Build — 4.8/10 (weight 17.5%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
Permitting regime 40% of dimension 5 /10 DCs in NSW are assessed under the State Significant Development (SSD) pathway (warehouses/DCs SEPP), but assessment timeframes run near two years; NSW has ~90 DCs with 5 SSDs determined, 14 in assessment and 7 at EIS stage, and approved the southern hemisphere's largest DC (A$3.1... as of
E2
NSW Planning SSD warehouses & data centres / Johnson Winter Slattery analysis (2025) www.planning.nsw.gov.au
Observed construction velocity 35% of dimension Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score.
Labor & supply capacity 25% of dimension 4.5 /10 Infrastructure Australia's 2025 Market Capacity Report puts the infrastructure workforce at ~204,000 (Oct 2025) against a ~141,000 shortfall (peaking ~300,000 by 2027), with technicians/trades fill-rates of just 57% and electrician demand of 53,000–84,000 more by 2050 for the ene... as of
E2
Infrastructure Australia 2025 Infrastructure Market Capacity Report (2025) www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au

Regulatory & AI Policy Environment — 6.9/10 (weight 12.5%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
AI-specific law in force 35% of dimension 6.5 /10 Australia has no binding AI statute: after 2024 consultation on mandatory guardrails for high-risk AI (>300 submissions), the Dec-2025 National AI Plan confirmed reliance on existing laws and sector regulators plus a Voluntary AI Safety Standard (10 guardrails) and a new AI Safet... as of
E1
Australian Govt National AI Plan / Voluntary AI Safety Standard (Dec 2025) www.industry.gov.au
DC-specific regulation 35% of dimension 5.5 /10 No federal DC-specific statute, but states are building targeted frameworks: NSW's SSD pathway treats DCs as a defined development class and Infrastructure NSW ran a DC-focused consultation (feedback to 8 May 2026) addressing grid and water siting, giving moderate, evolving DC-sp... as of
E2
NSW Planning SSD warehouses & data centres / Johnson Winter Slattery analysis (2025) www.planning.nsw.gov.au
Regulatory predictability 30% of dimension 9 /10 World Bank WGI 2024 scores Australia at +1.72 for Regulatory Quality and +1.47 for Rule of Law (on the -2.5 to +2.5 scale), both top-decile globally, reflecting strong, stable and rules-based regulatory institutions underpinning long-horizon infrastructure investment. as of
E1
World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators www.worldbank.org

Fiscal & Incentives — 4.7/10 (weight 10%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
Enacted incentives 40% of dimension Excluded — no E1–E2 evidence available; weaker evidence cannot enter a base score.
Headline tax burden 40% of dimension 4 /10 Australia's headline company tax rate is 30% (25% for base-rate entities under A$50m turnover) — high among OECD peers — and it has enacted the OECD Pillar Two 15% global and domestic minimum top-up taxes (royal assent 10 Dec 2024; IIR for FYs from 1 Jan 2024, UTPR from 1 Jan 202... as of
E1
Australian Taxation Office — Global and domestic minimum tax (2024-2025) www.ato.gov.au
Incentive durability 20% of dimension 6 /10 What incentives exist (R&D, Capacity Investment Scheme renewable underwriting) sit within a stable AAA-rated, institutionally strong policy environment (WGI Govt Effectiveness +1.81, 2024), so durability is high even though the absolute quantum of DC-specific support is modest. as of
E2
World Bank WGI 2024 / Reneweconomy Capacity Investment Scheme analysis (2024-2025) www.theglobaleconomy.com

Capital & Ecosystem Depth — 7.6/10 (weight 12.5%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
Committed capital 40% of dimension 8 /10 Australia anchors the largest DC deal globally — Blackstone + CPP Investments' A$24B acquisition of AirTrunk (completed Dec 2024), which holds >800 MW committed to customers and land for >1 GW of growth across APAC — alongside ASX-listed NextDC and hyperscaler builds, evidencing... as of
E1
Blackstone press release — Acquisition of AirTrunk in A$24B transaction (Sep 2024 / completed Dec 2024) www.blackstone.com
Ecosystem 30% of dimension 8 /10 Sydney is a top-tier APAC DC hub with ~162 operational DCs nationally, all major hyperscalers present, the region's largest operator (AirTrunk) headquartered locally, multiple subsea-cable landings, and a mature listed/private capital base (NextDC, CDC, AirTrunk) — a deep, establ... as of
E2
Certified Strategic Australia Data Centre Index (citing AEMO/Dept of Industry, Jun 2026) certifiedstrategic.com
Sovereign/anchor capital availability 30% of dimension 6.5 /10 The Future Fund (A$335.3B at 31 Dec 2025) entered its first full year of a new mandate to weigh national priorities in infrastructure and energy transition, and in 2025 explicitly increased its holding in CDC data centres and took a stake in transmission network Transgrid — direc... as of
E1
Future Fund 2025 portfolio update (assets at 31 Dec 2025) www.futurefund.gov.au

Stability & Execution Risk — 8.6/10 (weight 15%)

Sub-factor
Score
Justification
Evidence
Source
Political/policy continuity 40% of dimension 8.5 /10 World Bank WGI 2024 rates Australia at +0.79 Political Stability and +1.81 Government Effectiveness (-2.5 to +2.5 scale), reflecting a stable parliamentary democracy with high institutional capacity and orderly policy transitions — strongly supportive of multi-decade infrastructu... as of
E1
World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators www.worldbank.org
Currency, transfer & convertibility 35% of dimension 9.5 /10 The Australian dollar is a freely floating, fully convertible major reserve currency with no capital or profit-repatriation controls, and Australia holds AAA from all three agencies (S&P reaffirmed AAA/stable on 30 Sep 2025) — top-tier transfer and convertibility security for for... as of
E1
S&P AAA reaffirmation / Treasury & Austrade (30 Sep 2025) international.austrade.gov.au
Physical & geopolitical risk 25% of dimension 7.5 /10 Australia carries negligible armed-conflict/geopolitical risk and ranks 7th-most-ready on the ND-GAIN Index, but physical climate risk is real and rising: the 2025–26 bushfire season caused 5 deaths and ~386 homes destroyed, with the Australian Actuaries Climate Index logging its... as of
E2
ND-GAIN Index (Australia) / Australian Actuaries Climate Index (2025-26) gain-new.crc.nd.edu

Signals

Recent ingested source documents linked to this jurisdiction via extracted claims or triage mentions, newest first.

  1. · Capacity Media · relevance 0.70

  2. · Data Center Dynamics · relevance 0.70

  3. · Interesting Engineering · relevance 0.20

  4. · Bloomberg Technology · relevance 0.65

  5. · Bloomberg Technology · relevance 0.70

  6. · Bloomberg Technology · relevance 0.50

  7. www.ashurst.com · relevance 0.50

  8. www.theglobaleconomy.com · relevance 0.10

  9. www.blackstone.com · relevance 0.70

  10. gain-new.crc.nd.edu · relevance 0.00

Scores are reproducible from the frozen inputs snapshot recorded at computation time (2026-06-15T23:52:36+00:00). See the full methodology for rubrics, weights, and the evidence ladder.